Zlín B1-1Hodonín

At Fotbalový areál Vlastislava Marečka, Zlín B host Hodonín in Round 4 of the Czech Moravian-Silesian Football League. The model gives the home side a 93.7% win probability and projects a 4-0 scoreline, while the two teams have never met before. Neither side's overall league table record is provided, so form is assessed from the limited home/away and recent-match data.

Zlín B have won both of their last two home matches, averaging 2 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Their recent form across all venues shows four wins in the last five (LWWWW), with 1.4 scored and 0.4 conceded per match. They last played on 2026-08-15, so they have had eight days' rest.

Hodonín have not won in their last two away games (0W 1D 1L), though they have scored 2.5 per match while conceding 3. Over their last five overall they have one win (LDLWL), averaging 1.6 scored and 2.2 conceded. Their last match was also on 2026-08-15, giving them the same rest period as the hosts.

There are no prior meetings on record between Zlín B and Hodonín. With no head-to-head history to draw on, this fixture offers no historical pattern to inform the prediction.

Zlín B's two home matches have produced two wins with a combined 4-1 scoreline, while Hodonín's two away matches have yielded one draw and one loss with a combined 5-6 scoreline. These splits are based on only two games apiece, so they should be treated with caution.

Both teams come into this match on eight days' rest after playing on the same date, so neither carries a rest advantage. Neither side is flagged for a congested schedule or a promotion adjustment, leaving the small home/away samples and the absence of head-to-head meetings as the main uncertainties.

The Poisson model assigns a 93.7% chance of a Zlín B win, with a draw at 4.3% and an away win at 2.1%. It projects a 4-0 scoreline (4.78 expected goals to 0.82) and expects roughly 5.6 total goals, with a 91.3% probability of at least three and a 79.9% chance of at least four. The most likely exact scores are 4-0, 5-0, and 3-0, and the margin distribution gives an 84.8% chance of a home win by two or more, against an 8.9% chance of a one-goal home win.

The data points to a comfortable home victory, with the model's high win probability and goal expectation aligning. The main caveats are the tiny two-game samples for both home/away splits and the complete absence of head-to-head meetings, which keep the model's confidence at medium. An upset would require Hodonín to outperform its recent scoring and defensive numbers by a wide margin.