Žalgiris Vilnius B4-3Transinvest B

This Round 21 fixture in the Lithuanian I Lyga pits a home side with a perfect recent home record against an away side that has lost both of its last two matches on the road. The model strongly favors the hosts, projecting a 4.19 to 0.49 expected goals split and a 94.4% win probability.

Žalgiris Vilnius B have won both of their last two home games, averaging 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. Their wider recent run reads WWDWW, with an average of 2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match.

Transinvest B are winless in their last two away matches, averaging 1.5 scored and 3.5 conceded. Their last five games overall show WLLLD, with a scoring average of 1.4 and a conceding average of 2 per match.

No prior meetings between these two sides are on record. With an empty head-to-head sample, there is no historical result to lean on for this fixture.

At home, Žalgiris Vilnius B have won all of their last two matches, while Transinvest B have lost both of their last two away games. The home side's scoring and conceding averages at home (1.5 for, 0.5 against) are broadly in line with their recent overall form.

Both sides come into the match with an identical 11-day rest period, so there is no scheduling edge. The dominant factor is the model's lopsided projection, which gives the home side a 94.4% win probability against 1.4% for the visitors.

The Poisson model projects a 4-0 home victory, with an expected combined total of about 4.68 goals. It puts the probability of at least two goals at 94.6% and at least four goals at 67.8%, while the chance both teams score sits at 38.4%. The model's confidence is medium. The home side is given an 84.6% probability of winning by two or more goals, versus 9.8% for a one-goal margin.

The data points strongly toward a comfortable home win, with the single most likely scoreline being 4-0 (12.2%). The away side's defensive struggles on the road and the home side's recent scoring form reinforce that projection. A surprise would require Transinvest B to outperform both their away record and the model's expectations.