Yenisey-2 Krasnoyarsk4-0Iskra Smolensk

This FNL 2 Group 2 fixture sees Yenisey-2 Krasnoyarsk hosting Iskra Smolensk. The model gives the home side a 60.2% win probability, while the away side has lost all three of their last away matches. With no prior head-to-head meetings, the data is limited to recent form and model projections.

Yenisey-2 Krasnoyarsk's league table position is not available. In their last two home matches they have one win and one draw, conceding no goals while scoring just 0.5 per game. Their overall recent form is DWLDL, with 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded per match, though the most recent of those was a week ago.

Iskra Smolensk have lost all three of their last away matches, averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded. Their last five matches show LLLDL, with an average of 0.4 scored and 2.4 conceded. They have not won any of those five.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides. The head-to-head sample is therefore empty, offering no historical basis to separate them.

At their own ground, Yenisey-2 have won one and drawn one of two matches, with no goals conceded. Iskra Smolensk, by contrast, have lost all three away games in the data, conceding 2.67 per match. The contrast in defensive records is pronounced.

Both sides come in with similar rest periods: seven days for the home side and eight for the away side. No league table data is available for either team, so the analysis rests on recent form and split records. The away side's losing run in away matches is the clearest signal in the data.

The Poisson model gives Yenisey-2 a 60.2% win probability, a 34.6% draw, and 5.2% away win, projecting a 1-0 scoreline; the most probable exact scores are 1-0 (31.6%), 0-0 (29.7%), and 2-0 (16.8%). Total goals are projected at about 1.21, with a 34.2% chance of two or more goals and a 9.1% chance both teams score, while the winning-margin distribution has home by one at 34.2%, a draw at 34.6%, and home by two-plus at 26%. Model confidence is medium.

The data points to a narrow home win with 1-0 as the most probable scoreline, but the draw probability is nearly as high as a home win by a single goal. If the home side cannot break through, 0-0 is nearly as likely as 1-0. The away side's scoring troubles make an away win unlikely, though the 34.6% draw probability means the result is far from settled.