Xiamen Feilu0-2Wenzhou Professional

A Round 22 fixture in China League Two, with both sides arriving on seven days of rest. There is no prior head-to-head record and no league table data available, so the model relies on recent form and the notably low expected-goal totals. It gives the draw a 75.8% probability.

Xiamen Feilu have not won in their last three home matches, recording two draws and a loss while averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Their last five overall matches bring one win, two draws and two losses, with an average of 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.

Wenzhou Professional have drawn both of their last two away matches without scoring or conceding. Their previous five matches include four draws and one loss, with an average of 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. They are yet to win in that stretch.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record. The sample is too small to draw any historical tendency, leaving this fixture without a head-to-head reference point.

At home, Xiamen Feilu have drawn two and lost one of their last three, scoring once in total and conceding twice. Away from home, Wenzhou Professional have kept two clean sheets in as many matches, with no goals scored in that pair of games.

Both teams have had a seven-day break, so rest is not a differentiating factor. The model projects only about 0.3 total goals, with a 1.9% probability that both sides score. Wenzhou's recent away shutouts and Xiamen's limited home scoring both reinforce the low-scoring outlook. The absence of league table data and head-to-head history adds uncertainty to the projection.

The Poisson model assigns a 75.8% probability to the draw, making it the clear most likely outcome, with a projected scoreline of 0-0. The most likely individual scorelines are 0-0 (74.1%), 0-1 (11.1%), and 1-0 (11.1%). It expects about 0.3 goals combined, with a 3.7% chance of two or more goals. The winning-margin distribution is heavily draw-weighted: each side has an 11.2% chance of winning by one and a 0.9% chance of winning by two or more.

The data collectively points to a tightly contested, very low-scoring game that is most likely to end in a draw, with 0-0 as the single most probable scoreline. The model's medium confidence acknowledges the limited information, particularly the lack of prior meetings and table context. The projection would be overturned by an uncharacteristically open or high-scoring match.