XelajúvsMixco

Liga Nacional round 6 brings Xelajú and Mixco together at Estadio Mario Camposeco with both teams on short rest. The decisive numbers are Xelajú's home record — 4 wins in 5, with 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded per game — and Mixco's winless away run, where they have lost all three on record. The model gives the hosts a 97.3% win probability.

Xelajú's last five matches overall read D-L-W-L-D, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded per game. At home, however, they have won four and drawn one of their last five, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.4 per match. Their most recent fixture was 2026-08-27, four days before this one.

Mixco's last five overall are W-W-W-L-L, with 2.4 scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Their away record over the last three matches is entirely negative: no wins, three defeats, 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded per game. They played last on 2026-08-28, three days prior.

No prior meetings between these two sides are on record, so the head-to-head sample is too thin to support any conclusion. This fixture is effectively a first encounter for the data.

The venue gap is the central data point. Xelajú's home splits are markedly better than their recent overall form, while Mixco's away splits are far worse than their overall recent numbers. Home win rate jumps to 80% for Xelajú, while Mixco have yet to pick up a point on the road in the available sample.

Both teams are congested: Xelajú have four days of rest, Mixco three. That short turnaround affects both sides equally, and with no head-to-head data and a small away sample for Mixco, the model's medium confidence reflects some uncertainty.

The model projects a 4-0 scoreline, with expected goals of 4.26 for Xelajú and 0.18 for Mixco. It assigns a 97.3% win probability to the home side, 2.3% to the draw, and 0.3% to Mixco. Total goals are projected at 4.43, with a 93.3% chance of at least two goals and a 63.5% chance of four or more. The home side is projected to win by two or more goals 89.9% of the time, while the chance of both sides scoring is 15.9%.

The data points to a commanding Xelajú win, with 4-0 the most probable exact scoreline. The projection would be undercut if Mixco's away form improves beyond the small sample or if the congested schedule reduces Xelajú's output. On the available numbers, a multi-goal home victory is the clear expectation.