Würzburger Kickers1-2Köln

This DFB-Pokal first-round tie pairs Würzburger Kickers with Köln, two sides with no prior meetings on record. The model gives the hosts a 94.8% win probability and projects a 4-0 scoreline. With no league table data for either side, the preview leans on recent form and the model's output.

Würzburger Kickers have won all three home matches on record, averaging 3.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Their last five matches overall produced two wins, one draw, and two losses (WDWWL), with 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. They last played on 14 August, 10 days before this tie.

Köln have won only 4, drawn 7, and lost 9 of their last 20 away matches, averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Their recent five-match run (WDWLL) includes two defeats and higher scoring on both ends, at 2.8 goals for and 2.2 against. They had 16 days of rest since their last match on 8 August.

There are no prior meetings on record between Würzburger Kickers and Köln, so head-to-head history offers no basis for comparison.

The hosts have a 100% win rate in their three home matches on record, while Köln have won just 20% of their 20 away fixtures. This split is reflected in the model, which assigns a 94.8% win probability to the home side and only 1.5% to the visitors.

Rest days differ: Köln have had 16 days off, Würzburger Kickers 10. The model's confidence is medium, and the absence of head-to-head and league-table data adds uncertainty. The projected scoreline of 4-0 suggests a wide gap in quality on paper.

The Poisson model projects a 4-0 win for the home side, with expected goals of 4.64 to 0.64. It sees a 94.8% chance of a home win, the most likely outcome, and an 86.3% chance of the hosts winning by two or more goals. The most likely exact scoreline is 4-0 at 10.4%, followed by 5-0 at 9.6% and 3-0 at 8.9%. Total goals are projected at about 5.28, with a 96.6% probability of at least two goals, though the chance of both teams scoring is just 46.6%.

The data points overwhelmingly to a Würzburger Kickers victory, with the model favoring a win by two or more goals. Köln's away record and the hosts' home form align with that projection. A different result would require a significant deviation from the model and from recent patterns.