Würzburg3-2Neudrossenfeld

The sixth round of the 2026-27 Oberliga Bayern Nord season brings Würzburg and Neudrossenfeld together at the Sepp-Endres-Sportanlage. No league table positions are available for either side, so this preview focuses on recent form, home and away splits, and the model’s projections. The two clubs have never met in a recorded fixture, so there is no head-to-head history to consult.

The model’s most likely outcome is a Würzburg win, with a 67.9% probability. It projects a 3-1 scoreline at the final whistle, though the most probable individual exact scorelines are tightly grouped. Both teams enter the match on a short turnaround, with Würzburg having played three days ago and Neudrossenfeld four days ago.

Würzburg’s recent five-match run reads W-L-W-D-D from most recent to oldest, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. That suggests a team that is generally finding the net but occasionally leaking at the back. Their last outing was on 15 August, a result that is part of this sequence.

At home, however, the picture is more restricted. In their two home matches so far, Würzburg have recorded no wins, one draw, and one loss, averaging two goals scored and 2.5 conceded. That win rate of 0% contrasts with their overall recent record, which includes two victories. The home sample is small, but it does not yet show the dominance the model predicts.

Neudrossenfeld’s last five matches form a W-L-L-L-W sequence (most recent first), with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Their most recent match, on 14 August, ended in a win, which provides a positive note going into this fixture.

Away from home, Neudrossenfeld have played two matches and lost both, averaging one goal scored and two conceded. Their away win rate stands at 0%, and they have yet to take a point on the road. This away form is the weakest part of their profile and aligns with the model’s low 17.1% win probability for the visitors.

There are no prior meetings on record between Würzburg and Neudrossenfeld. As a result, there is no historical head-to-head data to inform the projection. With such a limited sample, it is not possible to lean on any prior results or patterns between these specific clubs.

The absence of a head-to-head record means both teams start this fixture without the usual reference points. The model therefore relies entirely on current form and the home/away splits.

Würzburg’s home split shows a team that scores at a similar rate to their overall recent form but concedes more. In their two home matches, they average two goals scored and 2.5 conceded, compared to 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded across their last five overall. The defensive concession rate at home is noticeably higher.

Neudrossenfeld’s away split is even more pronounced. Over their last five matches overall they average 1.0 conceded per game, but in two away matches that figure doubles to 2.0 conceded, with an average of one goal scored. Both sides have small home and away samples, so these splits should be treated with caution, but they do suggest that goals may be more likely than in an average fixture.

Both teams are on a short turnaround. Würzburg’s last match was on 15 August, giving them three days of rest, while Neudrossenfeld played on 14 August and have four days. Both are marked as congested, meaning the schedule is tight for both sides equally.

There is no league table data available, so it is not possible to assess either team’s position or the strength of their opponents so far this season. The model’s confidence is described as medium, which indicates a reasonable but not overwhelming level of certainty in the projection. The lack of any head-to-head record adds another layer of uncertainty, as does the small sample of home and away matches for both clubs.

The model gives Würzburg a 67.9% chance of winning the match, with draw probability at 15% and Neudrossenfeld’s win probability at 17.1%. That makes a home win the most likely outcome by a substantial margin. The projected scoreline is 3-1, with expected goals of 3.19 for the home side and 1.65 for the away side.

The most likely exact scorelines are 3-1 at 7.1%, 2-1 at 6.7%, and 3-2 at 5.9%. These are individual scoreline probabilities, not outcome probabilities, and even the top scoreline is below 8%, so the model is not highly precise on the exact margin. In terms of total goals, the model projects approximately 4.84 combined goals, with a 95.3% probability of at least two goals, 86% of at least three, and 71% of at least four. It also gives a 77.4% probability that both teams find the net.

On the winning margin, the largest single category is a home win by two or more goals at 49.4%, followed by a home win by exactly one goal at 18.5%. The draw is at 15%, an away win by one goal at 9.5%, and an away win by two or more at 7.6%. In aggregate, the model sees a high-scoring match with a comfortable home victory as the most plausible margin outcome.

The data points to a Würzburg win, and the model’s projected scoreline of 3-1 sits within a match that is expected to be open, with goals at both ends. Würzburg’s recent form is generally positive, though their home record so far is winless. Neudrossenfeld have lost both away matches, and have not yet shown they can travel effectively.

What would undermine this projection? If Neudrossenfeld’s most recent win signals a change in trajectory and they can tighten the defensive issues that have plagued them away from home, the gap could close. Additionally, Würzburg’s home form has been weaker than their overall record, and the model’s medium confidence leaves room for error. Still, the combination of the home side’s attacking output and the visitors’ away struggles makes a home win with multiple goals the most defensible expectation.