Wiślanie SkawinavsCzarni Połaniec

Round six of the Polish III liga Group IV sees Wiślanie Skawina hosting Czarni Połaniec at Boisko w Jaśkowice. The model makes the hosts heavy favorites, giving them a 69.4% win probability and projecting a 1-0 scoreline. Neither side has a recorded league table position in the data, and there is no prior head-to-head history.

Wiślanie Skawina are unbeaten in their last five matches, with four wins and a draw, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 0.6. At home over the last two games they have one win and one draw, averaging two goals scored per match.

Czarni Połaniec have won two and lost three of their last five matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Their last two away games have produced one win and one loss, with an average of 0.5 goals scored per trip.

There are no prior meetings on record, so the head-to-head sample is too small to offer any meaningful signal.

Wiślanie Skawina's last two home games yielded a win and a draw, with two goals scored per match. Czarni Połaniec's last two away games also produced a win and a loss, but with a far lower scoring output of 0.5 goals per game.

Both sides have had six days of rest since their last outing, so there is no schedule advantage. The absence of head-to-head data and league standings leaves the model to lean on recent form and venue splits, which adds some uncertainty to the projection.

The model, with medium confidence, assigns a 69.4% chance of a home win, a 23.3% chance of a draw, and a 7.2% chance of an away win. It projects about 1.92 total goals, with a 57.3% probability of at least two goals and only a 22.4% chance that both sides score. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0 (23.3%), followed by 2-0 (18.6%) and 0-0 (14.6%). From the home perspective, a victory by two or more goals is the most probable margin (39.5%), with a one-goal win next at 30%.

The data points clearly to a home win, with the model giving Wiślanie Skawina a near-70% probability. The visitors' away record and recent form do not suggest they are likely to threaten that. However, the small samples and lack of head-to-head meetings mean an upset cannot be dismissed entirely; the model's medium confidence reflects that.