Wisła Płock II1-1ŁKS Łomża

This is a Round 4 fixture in the Polish III liga Group I, with Wisła Płock II hosting ŁKS Łomża at Stadion Miejski im. Bernarda Szymańskiego on August 19, 2026. The available data contains no league table positions for either side, so this preview is built from recent form, home/away splits, and the model's projections.

The most striking number is the model's win probability: 93.2% for the home side, against 4.5% for a draw and 2.3% for an away win. That lopsided projection reflects a home side that has won two of its last three at home and an away side that has lost all three away matches on record.

Wisła Płock II come into this match on the back of a five-match run that reads DWWLW, with results listed from most recent to oldest. Over that stretch they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.

At home, their last three fixtures have produced two wins and one defeat, a 66.7% win rate. They have averaged two goals scored and one conceded in those matches. The recent home form is solid, though the sample is small.

ŁKS Łomża have lost each of their last four matches, a run of LLLL from most recent to oldest. In those games they averaged one goal scored and 2.5 conceded.

Their away record is equally concerning: three matches, three losses, with an average of 1.33 goals scored and three conceded. The away win rate stands at 0% across that sample.

No prior meetings between these two sides are on record. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the fixture offers no direct comparative evidence.

The absence of previous encounters means there is no historical pattern of results, no recurring scorelines, and no basis for saying one side has traditionally had the better of the other. The sample is effectively zero, so head-to-head data does not inform the model.

Wisła Płock II's home numbers over their last three matches show two wins and one loss, with an average of two goals scored and one conceded per game. They have won 66.7% of those home fixtures.

ŁKS Łomża, by contrast, have lost all three of their away matches on record, averaging 1.33 goals scored and three conceded. The away win rate is 0%. The gap between the two sides' recent home and away performance is stark, though it is based on only three matches for each.

One factor flagged in the data is rest. Wisła Płock II last played on August 15 and have only four days of preparation, which is marked as a short turnaround. ŁKS Łomża last played on August 14 and have five days of rest, so they are not under the same congestion flag.

The samples involved are small: three home matches for the hosts, three away matches for the visitors, and a five-match form run for one side and four for the other. That limits how much weight can be placed on these splits. The model itself carries medium confidence, acknowledging the uncertainty in the data.

The model's most likely outcome is a home win, carrying a 93.2% probability. The draw is at 4.5% and an away win at 2.3%. The projected score is 4-0, with expected goal values of 4.78 for the home side and 0.88 for the away side.

The most probable exact scoreline according to the model is 4-0, albeit at only 8%. The next two are 5-0 at 7.7% and 4-1 at 7%. In aggregate, the model expects roughly 5.66 goals in the match, with a 97.6% probability of at least two goals, 91.7% of at least three, and 80.5% of at least four. The chance that each side scores at least once is 57.9%.

Looking at the winning margin, the model gives an 84% probability of a home win by two or more goals. A home win by exactly one is at 9.2%, a draw at 4.5%, an away win by one at 1.7%, and an away win by two or more at 0.6%. The confidence level is medium.

The data collectively points to a comfortable home victory. Wisła Płock II's home form is solid, ŁKS Łomża's away form is poor, and the model amplifies those signals into a heavy home favourite. The projected margin of four goals is significant, though the exact-score probabilities are spread out.

The main caveats are the small sample sizes and the home side's short turnaround. If the home side's attacking output does not match the model's expectation, or the away side's defensive issues are not as pronounced as the three-match sample suggests, the margin could be smaller. But the direction of travel is clear: the model, and the underlying form, put this firmly in the home side's column.