Werder Bremen0-1Auxerre

Werder Bremen host Auxerre at the wohninvest WESERSTADION in a pre-season friendly, with both teams entering the match from different points in their calendars. The home side last played on 22 July and have had 24 days to prepare, while Auxerre's last match was on 17 May, making this their first outing after a 90-day break.

The model assessing this fixture gives Werder Bremen a 43.1% probability of winning, with Auxerre at 30.3% and a draw at 26.6%. That makes a home win the most likely outcome, though the projections are cautious: the expected scoreline is 1-1, and the model's confidence is rated as medium.

Werder Bremen's recent form over the last five matches is WLLLD, producing one win, three losses and a draw. Their scoring average across those five games is 0.8 goals per game, while they concede 1.4. At home across their last 20 matches, they have six wins, six draws and eight losses, scoring an average of 1.05 goals and conceding 1.55. No league table position is recorded.

Auxerre have had a lengthy period without a match. Their last five games produced three wins, one loss and a draw, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Away from home over the last 20 matches, they have three wins, six draws and eleven losses, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. The 90-day gap since their last match marks this as a season opener.

No prior meetings between Werder Bremen and Auxerre are on record. With such a small sample, the head-to-head record offers no basis for an edge, leaving the model's projections as the primary analytical tool.

The match takes place at the wohninvest WESERSTADION, Werder Bremen's home ground. Over their last 20 home matches, the home side have won six, drawn six and lost eight, with a negative goal differential in those games (1.05 scored against 1.55 conceded). Auxerre's away record over their last 20 away matches is even more pronounced: three wins, six draws and eleven losses, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game. Both sides' splits suggest a low-scoring, tight contest.

Rest and schedule are notable. Werder Bremen have had 24 days between matches, while Auxerre have had 90. The visitors' long layoff is explicitly flagged as an off-season gap, meaning this is their first match of the new season. There is no league table data for either side, so recent form and home/away splits carry more weight than usual. Model confidence is medium, reflecting the uncertainties around a friendly with such different preparation timelines.

The model gives Werder Bremen a 43.1% chance of winning, a draw 26.6%, and Auxerre 30.3%. Expected goals are 1.39 for the home side and 1.12 for the away side, which translates to a projected 1-1 scoreline. The most likely individual exact scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%, followed by 1-0 at 11.3% and 0-1 at 9.1%. The model anticipates around 2.5 total goals, with a 71.6% probability of at least two goals and a 46% chance of at least three. On winning margins, the largest single category is the draw at 26.6%, but combined home-win margins account for 43.1%, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The balance of the data points to a home win, albeit narrowly. Werder Bremen's home advantage and the visitors' long absence from the pitch are the main factors behind that projection. Auxerre's recent scoring strength—2.2 goals per game in their last five—is a note of caution, as is the absence of any head-to-head history. If the match follows the model's central expectation, it will be tight, with the strongest single exact scoreline being 1-1. A home win by a single goal is the most likely margin among the non-draw outcomes.