Warta Poznań2-1Miedź Legnica

Warta Poznań host Miedź Legnica in a Polish I liga fixture with the model heavily favoring the visitors. Miedź Legnica are given a 76% win probability, while Warta Poznań sit at 3%. The away side also arrive in stronger recent form.

Warta Poznań have lost both of their last two home matches, failing to score and conceding once per game. Their overall recent run across all venues reads LLWLW, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.

Miedź Legnica have won both of their last two away matches, scoring 2.5 per game and conceding none. Their last five matches overall are WWLWD, with 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded per game.

No prior meetings are on record between these two sides. The head-to-head sample is too small to lean on.

Warta Poznań's two home matches in this sample produced no wins and no goals, with an average of one conceded. Miedź Legnica have been perfect on the road in their two away games, scoring 2.5 per match and conceding zero.

League table positions are not provided, so the projection is built from recent form and the model alone. Warta Poznań have had nine days of rest to Miedź Legnica's seven, a minor difference. Both sides' home and away numbers come from just two matches, which underpins the model's medium confidence.

The Poisson model projects a 0-1 away win, with the most likely exact scoreline 0-1 (27.3%), followed by 0-2 (22.5%) and 0-0 (16.6%). It expects about 1.8 total goals, with a 53.6% chance of at least two and an 11.2% chance of both teams scoring. The margin projection is decisively in the visitors' favor: away by two or more is 45.2% and away by one is 30.8%, together matching the 76% away win probability.

The data points to a comfortable away victory, with the model's medium confidence reflecting the small match samples and the absence of head-to-head history. If Warta Poznań can improve on their home scoring output rather than the two-match sample, the margin could narrow, but the underlying projections strongly favor Miedź Legnica.