Vysočina Jihlava0-1Táborsko

Round 5 of the Czech National Football League sees Vysočina Jihlava host Táborsko at Stadion v Jiráskově ulici. The model gives the visitors a 70% win probability against a home side at just 6.1%, with a draw at 24%. No league table data is available for either team, so recent form and the model output carry the analysis.

Jihlava's recent form is erratic: WLDWL over their last five, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. At home in their last three they have one win and two losses, scoring 0.67 per game while conceding 2.33. Their last match was on 15 August, giving them six days of rest.

Táborsko arrive unbeaten in their last five (WWDDW), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. On the road across their last two away games they have one win and one draw, with an average of 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. They also last played on 15 August, with the same six-day rest.

There are no prior meetings between these sides on record, so the head-to-head offers no basis for a projection.

Jihlava's home numbers over the last three games are poor, with a 33.3% win rate and a high concession rate of 2.33. Táborsko's away sample is small but tidy: a 50% win rate and just 0.5 conceded. The mismatch in defensive stability is the clearest split between the two.

Both teams have identical rest periods, so fatigue is not a differentiator. The away side's recent defensive solidity stands out, while the home side's last five show leakage at the back. With no head-to-head history and no table data, these form-based signals are the main inputs; the model rates its own confidence as medium.

The Poisson model projects a 0-1 scoreline, with the away side winning 70% of simulations. The most likely individual scoreline is 0-1 (25.4%), followed by 0-2 (19.5%) and 0-0 (16.5%). Total goals are expected around 1.8, with a 53.7% chance of at least two goals and only an 18.3% chance that both teams score. The margin distribution favors the visitors heavily: away by two or more occurs in 39.1% of simulations, and away by one in 30.9%.

The data points to a Táborsko win, and likely a comfortable one by multiple goals in about four of ten simulations. The main source of uncertainty is the small sample behind both sides' form and the absence of prior meetings. If Jihlava's home scoring improves on its recent 0.67 average, the model's clean-sheet-heavy projection would weaken.