VolosvsKalamata

This Greek Football Cup first-round tie brings together two sides with little to separate them in recent results. Both teams are coming off a congested three-day turnaround, and the model rates a draw as the most likely outcome, with only a slim gap between Kalamata's chances and Volos's.

Volos have won none of their last two home matches, drawing one and losing one while averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Over their last five games, they have a single win alongside three defeats, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match.

Kalamata have taken one win from their last three away matches, with two defeats and an average of 0.67 goals scored and 1 goal conceded. Their broader recent run shows two wins in five matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, so they arrive in marginally better form than the hosts.

The sides have met only once on record, with Kalamata winning 2-0 at Volos in August 2026. With a single meeting to draw on, the head-to-head offers little reliable signal.

Volos's home form shows a low scoring rate of 0.5 goals per match, while Kalamata's away matches have averaged 0.67 goals for and 1 against. Both sides' venue splits point to a modestly productive contest, with no strong home advantage evident in the data.

Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last matches, a short turnaround that the model accounts for. Volos's recent run includes just one win in five, while Kalamata have won two of five, and neither side has a league table record in the data to add context.

The model gives a medium-confidence projection, with a draw as the most likely outcome at 44.5%, ahead of an away win at 36.3% and a home win at 19.2%. It expects about 1.06 total goals, and the 0-0 draw is the single most likely scoreline at 34.7%. The probability of both teams scoring is just 15.9%, and of non-draw results, an away win by one goal is most common at 26%, with a home win by two or more rated at only 3.4%.

All available data points toward a low-scoring, evenly matched cup tie, with the draw the most probable single result. An away win is the second-most likely outcome, while a comfortable home victory is not well supported by the numbers.