VillarrealvsLevante

This is a preseason friendly at Estadio de la Cerámica, and for both Villarreal and Levante it functions as a season opener after a long summer break. Villarreal enter as clear favorites based on their home record, while Levante arrive with an away record that has been less productive.

The most important numbers: Villarreal have won 12 of their last 20 home matches, while Levante have lost 11 of their last 20 on the road. The model gives Villarreal a 76.9% chance of victory and projects a 3-1 scoreline.

The off-season gap for both sides adds a layer of uncertainty, but the statistical gap between them is substantial.

Villarreal have no league table data available for the current season, but their last 20 home matches provide a solid picture: 12 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game. That 60% win rate at home is the strongest number in this fixture.

Their most recent five matches, listed most recent first, read WLLDW, with an average of 2.6 scored and 1.6 conceded. That run includes more goals at both ends than their longer-term average, suggesting a slightly more open set of games. The last of those matches came on 2026-05-24, and the 73-day break means this is effectively a fresh start.

Levante's away record over their last 20 matches shows 5 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with 1.2 scored and 1.75 conceded per game, giving them a 25% win rate on the road. Those are modest numbers, and they show a team that has struggled to control games away from home.

In their last five matches, most recent first, they went LWWWL, averaging 2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. That is a little more attack-minded than their longer-term away form, but also more porous. They last played on 2026-05-23, so they too are starting from a 74-day gap.

Only two meetings between these sides are on record, and Villarreal won both. They scored six goals in total while Levante scored one, with the most recent meeting a 5-1 home win in May 2026. The prior game, in February 2026, ended 1-0 to Villarreal away.

One of the two matches produced two or fewer total goals, so the head-to-head is not a one-sided stream of high-scoring games. With just two samples, though, this record is too thin to carry much weight on its own. It aligns with the broader home/away data, but it is not the primary reason to favor Villarreal.

Villarreal's home splits are where the case for a home win builds. Over 20 matches at Estadio de la Cerámica they have scored 2.2 per game and won 60% of the time. Levante's away splits are the opposite, with 1.75 conceded per game and a 25% win rate.

The gap between the two is roughly one goal per game in scoring, and a similar gap in defensive solidity. Those splits are the most telling contrast in this fixture, and they feed directly into the model's projection of a 3-1 home victory.

The biggest factor is the combination of Villarreal's home strength and Levante's away vulnerability, but the off-season layoff cannot be ignored. Both teams are coming off breaks of roughly ten weeks, so match sharpness and fitness are unknowns for either side.

Villarreal's recent form (WLLDW) and Levante's recent form (LWWWL) both show inconsistency, with each side mixing wins and losses in their last five. The head-to-head sample is small, so the projection relies more on the broader home and away splits than on any direct history. Friendly matches after a long break can produce unexpected results, but the underlying numbers still favor the home side.

The model assigns Villarreal a 76.9% win probability, with a 13.2% chance of a draw and 9.9% for an away win. The projected scoreline is 3-1, based on expected values of 3.06 goals for Villarreal and 1.07 for Levante.

The most likely exact scorelines are 3-1 at 8.3%, 2-1 at 8.1%, and 3-0 at 7.8%. Notably, the three most likely scorelines are all home wins, which matches the outcome-level probability. Confidence is medium, meaning the model is fairly but not extremely confident in the home result.

The data collectively points to a Villarreal win, and the model marks it as the most likely outcome at 76.9%. Their home scoring record and Levante's away record both support that reading.

The main thing that could change the picture is the long layoff. With both sides starting their season after 73 and 74 days away from competitive action, there is more variance in how the match might go than the season-long numbers suggest. If the game stays true to the form indicators, a home victory by a two-goal margin is the reasonable expectation. But the off-season context should temper how confidently any exact scoreline is read.