Villarreal1-0Levante

Villarreal and Levante open their 2026 campaigns with a friendly at Estadio de la Cerámica. The fixture arrives after a lengthy off-season break for both sides, with each team's last competitive match coming in late May.

The model's projections are unusually lopsided for a friendly: Villarreal enter with a 76.9% win probability and a projected 3-1 scoreline. That confidence is built on Villarreal's strong home record and Levante's struggles on the road.

This is a friendly, however, and the long layoff adds uncertainty. The head-to-head sample is also limited to just two matches, both won by Villarreal.

Villarreal's home record over their last 20 matches at Estadio de la Cerámica stands at 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, a 60% win rate. They average 2.2 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per home match, indicating a side that generally controls games at home.

In their last five matches overall, Villarreal's form reads WLLDW. They averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across those matches. Their last match was on 24 May 2026, meaning they have had 73 days to prepare for this season opener.

Levante's away record is notably weaker. Over their last 20 away matches, they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses, a 25% win rate. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per away match, a combination that has produced more losses than wins.

Their recent form in the last five matches, most recent first, is LWWWL. That sequence shows three wins in a row at one point, but they ended with a loss. They averaged 2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded in those matches. Their last match was on 23 May 2026, and they also return after 74 days without competitive action.

Only two previous meetings are on record between these sides, and Villarreal have won both. They triumphed 5-1 at home in May 2026 and recorded a 1-0 away win in February 2026.

In those two matches, Villarreal scored 6 goals and Levante scored 1, for a total of 7 goals across two meetings. One of the two matches saw two or fewer total goals. The sample size is too small to draw firm conclusions, but the existing record strongly favors Villarreal.

Villarreal's home numbers provide the clearest edge in this fixture. A 60% win rate at home, combined with an average of over two goals scored, suggests they are typically dominant in front of their own fans.

Levante's away form, by contrast, is a liability. A 25% win rate and a negative goal differential away from home point to a side that struggles on the road. The contrast between the two sides' home and away splits is stark and informs the model's projection.

The defining factor here is the off-season gap. Both teams have been out of competitive action for over 70 days, making this a season opener for each. Long breaks can reset form and introduce unpredictability, which is one reason the model's confidence is set to medium rather than high.

Another factor is the limited head-to-head history. With just two recorded meetings, the sample is not large enough to treat past results as a strong guide. Levante's poor away record and Villarreal's strong home record are more robust indicators, but neither carries certainty in a friendly.

The Poisson model assigns a 76.9% probability to a Villarreal win, with a draw at 13.2% and a Levante win at 9.9%. The projected scoreline is 3-1, with expected goals of 3.06 for Villarreal and 1.07 for Levante.

Among exact scorelines, the most likely is 3-1 at 8.3%, closely followed by 2-1 at 8.1% and 3-0 at 7.8%. The model therefore sees a comfortable home victory as the most probable outcome, while acknowledging some uncertainty through its medium confidence rating.

The data points squarely toward a Villarreal win. Their home record is strong, Levante's away record is poor, and the head-to-head, though small, is one-sided. The model's 76.9% win probability is the dominant signal.

The main caveats are the long layoff and the modest head-to-head sample. If Villarreal take time to find their rhythm, Levante could keep things closer than the projection suggests. But based on the available data, a Villarreal victory is the clear expectation.