Viimsi4-1Nõmme United U21

This Round 25 Esiliiga meeting pits Viimsi against Nõmme United U21 at Viimsi Staadion. The model rates Viimsi as clear favourites at 88.9% win probability, projecting a 3-0 scoreline. Both sides enter on short turnarounds, and with no league table data on record, recent form and the model carry the preview.

Viimsi's last five matches read LWWLW, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. At home across their last two outings they have scored 3 per match and conceded 1, splitting those games one win and one loss. They come into this fixture on three days' rest, a congested turnaround.

Nõmme United U21's recent form is DWWWL, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Across their last three away games they have one win, one draw and one defeat, with 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded per match. They also face a tight schedule with just four days since their previous outing.

Only one meeting is on record. In that match, Viimsi beat Nõmme United U21 3-0. A single fixture is too small a sample to draw firm conclusions from.

Viimsi's home numbers from their last two matches at Viimsi Staadion show 3 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. Nõmme United U21's away record over three matches is 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. That combination may help explain the model's projected 3-0 scoreline, though the samples are small and should be read with caution.

Both teams are in congested schedules: Viimsi have three days' rest and Nõmme United U21 four. Neither side has a league table record on which to base position, so form and the model take precedence. The single head-to-head is too thin to count as a reliable indicator.

The model gives Viimsi an 88.9% win probability, with 7.1% for a draw and 3.9% for Nõmme United U21. The projected score is 3-0, based on expected goals of 3.99 to 0.88. The model's top projected exact scores are 3-0 and 4-0, each at 8.3%, with 3-1 next at 7.3%. Overall the model expects about 4.87 goals, including a 71% chance of four or more, and a 76% chance of a home win by two or more goals.

The data aligns behind a Viimsi home win, with the model's probability and the projected margin both lopsided. Their recent scoring form and Nõmme United U21's away defensive numbers reinforce that picture. The main caveats are the small samples — one head-to-head and a handful of recent matches — and the congested schedule for both sides, which could make a comfortable result less certain than the probabilities suggest.