Ventura County2-2Portland Timbers II

This Round 26 MLS Next Pro fixture at William Rolland Stadium features two sides that have each won three straight on their respective home and away grounds. The model gives Ventura County a 72% win probability and projects a 1-0 scoreline. With no prior meetings on record, the recent splits and the model do the heavy lifting.

Ventura County have won all three home games in this sample, averaging 3.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded. Their last five results overall are WWWWL, with averages of 3.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. They last played on 2026-08-14, giving them a 10-day break.

Portland Timbers II have won all three away games in this sample, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Their last five results overall are WDWWW, with averages of 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded. They last played on 2026-08-16, eight days before this fixture.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record. The sample is too small to draw comparative conclusions from history. The analysis therefore leans on recent results and the model.

At William Rolland Stadium, Ventura County's home scoring average of 3.67 is higher than their overall recent rate of 3.0. Portland Timbers II's away average of 2.33 also exceeds their overall recent rate of 1.6, though their away concession average of 0.67 is above the 0.4 overall. The venue data emphasizes the home side's attacking edge.

Ventura County arrive with 10 days of rest, Portland Timbers II with eight, so both have had a full week-plus off. No league-table data is provided for either team, so the projection rests entirely on recent splits and the model.

The model expects a home win with 72% probability, against 19.3% for a draw and 8.6% for an away win. The highest-probability exact scoreline is 1-0 (16.6%), ahead of 2-0 (16.3%) and 3-0 (10.6%). It projects about 2.46 total goals, with a 70.5% chance of at least two goals and a 45.6% chance of a home win by two or more. Confidence is medium, and the model puts the chance of each side scoring at least once at 34.2%.

The data points to a Ventura County victory, with the model favoring a home win by two or more goals (45.6%) over a one-goal margin (26.4%). The absence of head-to-head history and league-table context makes this a projection built on a narrow base. A stronger away performance than the model assumes is the clearest path to an upset.