Venezia3-2Modena

This Coppa Italia Round 64 tie brings together two sides with sharply contrasting records. Venezia's last 20 home matches have produced 18 wins and only two defeats, with an average of 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. Modena, by contrast, have won six of their last 20 away matches, drawing six and losing eight, while averaging 1.05 goals scored and one conceded. The model reflects that gap, giving Venezia a 76.5% win probability and projecting a 2-0 scoreline. No league table data is available for either side, so these match-level records are the primary basis for comparison.

Venezia's recent form is strong: across their last five matches they have four wins and a draw, scoring 3.4 goals per game on average and conceding only 0.4. That run extends a home record that shows 18 wins in 20, with no draws and two losses at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Their last outing on 2026-07-27 leaves them with 19 days of rest before this fixture. With the league table unavailable, it is hard to place this run in a wider competitive context, but the underlying scoring and defensive numbers are clear.

Modena's recent form is poor: their last five matches produced one win and four defeats, with an average of 0.4 goals scored and one conceded per game. Their away record over the last 20 matches is more moderate, though still below parity: six wins, six draws and eight losses, a 30% win rate, with an average of 1.05 goals scored and one conceded. That translates into a typical away match with roughly two goals combined. The gap between their recent run and Venezia's is the central theme of this tie.

Only two previous meetings between these sides are on record: Venezia 0-2 Modena on 2026-02-10, and Modena 1-2 Venezia on 2025-12-20. Each team has one win. The two matches produced five goals in total, an average of 2.5 per meeting, and one of the two finished with two or fewer goals. With just two data points, the head-to-head record is too small a sample to carry much predictive weight.

Venezia's home splits are emphatic. Over their last 20 home matches they have won 18, drawn none and lost two, a 90% win rate, while averaging 2.6 scored and 0.6 conceded. Modena's away splits are considerably less imposing: six wins, six draws and eight defeats in 20, a 30% win rate, with 1.05 scored and one conceded on average. The home side's scoring output is more than double their opponent's away scoring average, while their concession rate is lower. The venue therefore reinforces the model's read of the tie.

Both sides come into this match after a comparable layoff: Venezia have had 19 days since their last fixture on 2026-07-27, and Modena 18 days since theirs on 2026-07-28. The absence of league table data means the usual frame of reference is missing; the form and split records are the only indicators available. The head-to-head sample is also thin at two meetings, so past results offer little guidance. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting some uncertainty in its inputs.

The Poisson model gives Venezia a 76.5% probability of winning, with a 17.2% chance of a draw and a 6.3% chance of a Modena win. The projected scoreline is 2-0, based on expected goal values of 2.07 for the home side and 0.42 for the visitors. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0 at 17.8%, with 1-0 (17.2%) and 3-0 (12.3%) close behind. The model projects about 2.49 goals in total, with a 71% chance of at least two goals, a 45.3% chance of at least three, and a 24% chance of at least four. The probability that each side scores at least once is just 29.8%. From the home side's perspective, a win by two or more goals is the most common margin, at 50.7%, followed by a one-goal home win at 25.8%. The model's confidence is medium.

The data points consistently toward a comfortable Venezia win. Their home record shows 18 wins in 20, while Modena's away record includes eight defeats in 20. Venezia's scoring and defensive averages are superior on both sides of the ball, and the model projects a 2-0 result with a 76.5% win probability. The head-to-head sample is too small to alter that picture, and with no league table data available the match-level records are the best guide. The model gives a 50.7% probability of a home win by two or more goals, the largest share of the margin distribution. The result would differ from the model's expectation if Venezia's recent output does not carry over after the 19-day break, or if Modena's away form improves beyond its recent run, but neither possibility is indicated by the numbers.