Ural-2 YekaterinburgvsRubin-2 Kazan

Both sides begin their 2026 FNL 2 Group 4 campaign with no league table data yet. They met a week ago, when Ural-2 won 2-1 at Rubin-2, but the model now gives the away side a 63.1% win probability.

Ural-2's recent five matches show one win followed by four losses, with 1.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game. At home over their last two, they have lost both, scoring once and conceding 2.5 per match.

Rubin-2 are winless in their last five (LLLDL), averaging 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded. Away from home in their last two, they have one draw and one loss, scoring 2 and conceding 2.5 per game.

Only one prior meeting is on record: Ural-2 beat Rubin-2 2-1 on 23 August 2026. That sample is far too small to draw any reliable head-to-head conclusions.

Ural-2 have lost both of their last two home matches, while Rubin-2 have taken one point from two away games. The home side's venue record is poor, and the model's projected 1-3 scoreline reinforces a clear away advantage.

This is the opening round of the season, so neither side has a league record yet. Both teams had seven full days of rest since their last match on 23 August. The most striking input is the model's high expected total of roughly 5.3 goals, with a 96.8% probability of at least two goals.

The Poisson model puts Rubin-2's win probability at 63.1%, with the draw at 15.5% and Ural-2 at 21.4%. The projected score is 1-3, and the top individual scorelines are 1-3, 2-3, and 1-2. The model expects a high-scoring game, with 89.7% probability of three or more goals and an 83.1% chance both teams score. The largest single margin probability is an away win by two or more goals at 45.3%.

The data, while based on a small sample, points to Rubin-2 as the clear favorite, with the model expecting them to win and likely by a multi-goal margin. The main caveat is that the only head-to-head meeting went the other way, and the model's confidence is only medium, so a Ural-2 result would not be a shock.