Universitatea CraiovavsLevski Sofia

Universitatea Craiova welcome Levski Sofia for the second leg of this UEFA Champions League tie, having lost the first leg 1-0 in Bulgaria. The model gives the home side a 49.8% chance of winning on the night, but also projects a 0-0 draw as the most likely exact scoreline. With a single-goal deficit to overcome, the tie remains open but low-scoring.

Universitatea Craiova have only one home match on record this season, a 1-0 win. Their recent form across all venues shows two wins and a loss in the last three, with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. The sample size is very small, making these numbers tentative.

Levski Sofia's sole away match on record ended in a 1-1 draw. Their recent overall form is strong: two wins and a draw in the last three outings, averaging 2 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded. Again, the away data is limited to one game.

The only previous meeting between these sides was the first leg on July 22, 2026, where Levski Sofia won 1-0 at home. That match produced just one goal total. With only one head-to-head encounter, the historical record is not a reliable guide.

Home and away splits are based on extremely small samples. Craiova's one home game was a win, while Levski's one away game was a draw. These figures carry little predictive weight.

Both teams have had seven full days of rest since their last match, so no advantage there. The primary uncertainty comes from the minimal data available for both sides, particularly regarding home and away performances. The first-leg result gives Levski a narrow lead, but the model suggests the tie is still finely balanced.

The Poisson model assigns a 49.8% probability to a home win, 43.6% to a draw, and only 6.6% to an away win. Expected goals are very low: 0.8 for Craiova and 0.15 for Levski, projecting a 0-0 scoreline. The most likely exact scores are 0-0 (38.8%), 1-0 (30.9%), and 2-0 (12.3%). The model's confidence is medium.

The data points to a tight, low-scoring match. The home side are the most likely winners on the night, yet the 0-0 draw is the single most probable scoreline. Given the first-leg result, a 1-0 home win would level the tie, while a 0-0 draw would send Levski through. The extremely low away win probability suggests Levski are unlikely to win again. The small sample sizes and the contradiction between most likely result and most likely exact score make this a low-confidence projection.