Unión MagdalenavsDeportes Quindío

Round 7 of the Colombian Primera B sees Unión Magdalena host Deportes Quindío at Estadio Sierra Nevada. The defining number is the model's 75.8% draw probability, with the most likely final score sitting at 0-0. Both sides arrive with unremarkable recent scoring records, which the model translates into an extremely low-scoring projection.

Unión Magdalena have taken one point from their last three matches, with a run of LLD and an average of 0 goals scored per game. Their only recorded home fixture this season finished level at 0-0, and they have yet to win at the stadium across that limited sample.

Deportes Quindío's recent form reads WDDWL over the last five, averaging 1 goal scored and 0.8 conceded. On the road, they have one draw and one loss from two away matches, averaging 1 goal for and 1.5 against.

There are no prior meetings between these two sides on record. With such a small sample, the head-to-head offers no meaningful guide to the matchup.

Unión Magdalena's single home game produced no goals, matching the model's expectation. Quindío's away record shows a higher concession rate (1.5 per match) than their overall recent average (0.8), though the sample is just two games.

Rest days are nearly identical, with the hosts having five days since their last match and the visitors six. Neither side is playing on a short turnaround. The model projects a combined total of roughly 0.3 goals, with a 3.7% chance of two or more goals, underscoring how little scoring it expects.

The model's confidence is medium, and it assigns a 75.8% probability to a draw, the most likely outcome. The projected scoreline is 0-0 at 74.1%, with 0-1 and 1-0 each at 11.1%. The winning-margin distribution is heavily weighted to the draw: one-goal wins for either side are rated at 11.2% each, while two-goal-plus margins are at 0.9% each.

All inputs point toward a goalless or very low-scoring draw, with the model ranking 0-0 as the single most likely exact score. Both teams have scored sparingly in recent weeks, and the chance of both scoring is just 1.9%. The projection would only be overturned by an attacking performance well above anything either side has shown in their recent results.