Umeå0-0Enköping

Umeå host Enköping at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in a Swedish Division 1 North match. Both teams arrive in poor recent form: Umeå have lost their last five matches and Enköping four of their last five. The model gives Umeå a 60% win probability, the strongest single outcome.

Umeå have lost both of their last two home matches, scoring one and conceding three per game. Their recent run is five straight defeats, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. They have had eight days of rest since their last match on 15 August.

Enköping have lost all three away matches on record, averaging 0.33 goals scored and two conceded. Their overall recent form is LLWLL, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. They last played on 19 August, a four-day turnaround flagged as congested.

The only recorded meeting between these sides came in June 2026, when Enköping won 3-1 at home. That single sample is too small to lean on, though it did produce four goals, more than two.

Umeå's home matches have seen them score at a slightly higher rate than their recent overall average (1.0 vs 0.6 per game) but concede more as well (3.0 vs 2.4). Enköping's away matches have featured a much weaker attack than their recent overall average (0.33 vs 0.8) while conceding a similar amount.

Umeå have an eight-day rest advantage over Enköping, who face a congested four-day turnaround. Enköping's three away matches have produced no wins and an average of only 0.33 goals scored. No league table data is available to assess either side's position or schedule strength.

The model projects a 1-0 Umeå win, with expected goals of 1.59 for the hosts and 0.66 for Enköping. Umeå's win probability is 60%, against 24.8% for a draw and 15.2% for the visitors. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 (16.8%), 2-0 (13.4%) and 1-1 (11%), and total goals are projected at about 2.25, with a 65.8% chance of two or more and a 38.5% chance both teams score. The winning margin is most likely to be a home win by two or more (32.8%) or by one (27.2%), and model confidence is medium.

The data points to a Umeå home win, mainly on the strength of Enköping's poor away record and the model's 60% probability. Medium confidence means a draw or away win cannot be ruled out, especially given Umeå's own five-match losing streak. A 1-0 scoreline is the single most likely specific outcome, but a two-goal margin is also plausible.