Újpest IIvsSzeged-Csanád II

Round 5 of the Hungarian NB III Southeast brings Újpest II and Szeged-Csanád II to Újpest Labdarúgó Sportcentruma. Neither side has a league table record in the available data, so recent form and the model carry the analysis. The model strongly favors the home side with an 88.6% win probability and a projected 4-1 scoreline.

Újpest II's league position is not recorded. Their last five matches show WDLWW, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. At home across the last three they are unbeaten with two wins and a draw, averaging three goals scored and 0.67 conceded.

Szeged-Csanád II also have no recorded league table position. Their form across the last five is WWWWL, with averages of 3.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Away from home in the last three they have two wins and one loss, averaging three scored and two conceded.

There are no prior meetings between these two teams on record. With an empty head-to-head sample, there is no historical result to inform this preview.

Újpest II's home record over the last three is two wins and a draw, with three goals scored and 0.67 conceded per match. Szeged-Csanád II's away record over the same span is two wins and one loss, with three scored and two conceded. The home side's defensive average in these splits is markedly tighter.

Both teams played last on 2026-08-16 and come in with 10 days of rest, so neither has a scheduling edge. The absence of any head-to-head history and the short sample of three home/away matches each increase uncertainty around the model. The away side have lost one of the last three away matches, while the home side are unbeaten at home.

The model gives the home side an 88.6% win probability, with 6.6% for the draw and 4.8% for the away win, and projects a 4-1 scoreline from expected values of 4.78 and 1.32 goals. It expects about 6.11 total goals, with a 98.3% chance of two or more and an 85% chance of four or more; the probability of both teams scoring at least once is 72.7%. The most likely exact scorelines are 4-1, 5-1, and 3-1, and the model's modal margin is a home win by two or more goals at 77.4%. Confidence is medium.

The data points clearly to a home victory, with the model's probability and projected scoreline aligning with the home side's strong home form. The lack of head-to-head meetings and the limited sample of recent splits are the main reasons the confidence is only medium. An away result would go against the numbers, but the data is thin enough that the home win, while strongly favored, is not a certainty.