Udinese1-0Nottingham Forest

Udinese and Nottingham Forest meet at Bluenergy Stadium for a pre-season friendly with no prior meetings between the clubs. The statistical picture comes entirely from each side's form in previous matches, and the model sees a narrow margin separating the teams.

The most important numbers are the win probabilities: Nottingham Forest are given a 36.5% chance, Udinese 34.6%, and the draw 28.9%. The projected scoreline is 1-1, with expected goals of 1.09 for Udinese and 1.13 for Nottingham. With no head-to-head history to consult, the match is defined by the recent run of both squads.

Udinese's home record over their last 20 matches shows 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, with an average of 0.95 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game. That works out to a 30% home win rate, and the goal figures indicate a side that concedes more than it scores on its own ground.

In their last five matches, the form string reads LLLLW — four defeats and one win — while averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their most recent outing was on 2026-07-28, leaving an 11-day gap before this fixture. No league table data was provided, so the home split is the primary reference point for this side.

Nottingham Forest's away record over their last 20 matches shows 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.45 conceded, producing a 40% away win rate. They have scored more than they have conceded on the road over that stretch.

Their recent five-match form is DLDWW — a draw, a loss, a draw, and two wins — with an average of 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. However, their last match was on 2026-05-24, and this fixture comes after a 76-day off-season gap, making this their first competitive match of the 2026 season.

The head-to-head record is blank: there are no prior meetings between Udinese and Nottingham Forest on record. With no historical results to weigh, any statistical edge must come from current form and venue splits rather than past encounters.

The absence of matchup data adds uncertainty to the model. A single friendly between two sides without an established competitive history is harder to project than a fixture with a long track record, so the model's medium confidence is a necessary caveat.

Udinese's home numbers are below the break-even mark: they concede an average of 1.15 goals while scoring 0.95 at Bluenergy Stadium. Their home win rate over the last 20 is 30%, with 5 drawn matches in that span.

Nottingham Forest's away figures are stronger on paper, with 1.5 goals scored per game and a 40% win rate in their last 20 away fixtures. Yet those are their overall away numbers, not a reflection of any previous visit to this venue — there are no data on how either side performs specifically at Bluenergy Stadium in this fixture.

The clearest systematic difference is rest. Udinese come in with an 11-day gap since their previous match, while Nottingham Forest have had 76 days since their last competitive outing and are opening their season. That off-season gap means Nottingham's form figures were produced before a long layoff, adding uncertainty to how they will carry over.

Also relevant is the lack of head-to-head data. With no prior meetings, the model must rely solely on venue splits and recent form. The three outcome probabilities are tightly grouped — 34.6% home, 28.9% draw, 36.5% away — which the model reflects with medium confidence.

The Poisson model places Nottingham Forest slightly ahead, assigning them a 36.5% win probability against 34.6% for Udinese and 28.9% for the draw. The projected score is 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.09 for the home side and 1.13 for the away side.

The single most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, at 13.4%, with 0-1 (12.2%) and 1-0 (11.8%) close behind. The projected scoreline and the most likely result are therefore not the same: the model's aggregated result probabilities give Nottingham Forest the narrowest of edges, while the specific scoreline most often forecast is a draw. With medium confidence, the model sees a tight match.

The collective numbers point to a closely contested friendly with a slight statistical advantage for Nottingham Forest. Their away scoring rate is higher than Udinese's home scoring rate, and their recent form shows more goals in the last five matches than Udinese's.

However, the off-season gap for Nottingham and the absence of any head-to-head history should temper expectations of a decisive outcome. If Udinese's extra match rhythm proves significant, or if home advantage carries weight in a friendly setting, the balance could tip toward the home side. Conversely, Nottingham's away attacking output gives them a clear path to a narrow win. The most defensible reading of the evidence is a low-scoring game with a 1-1 or one-goal margin.