TSV Hartberg IIvsAllerheiligen

Round 4 of the Austrian Regionalliga Süd brings TSV Hartberg II and Allerheiligen together at the Profertil Arena. Neither side has a league table record on file, but the model sees a clear gap: 90.3% home-win probability with a projected 6-1 scoreline. Both teams last played on August 21 and have had nine days' rest.

Hartberg II's only home match this season ended in a 2-2 draw. Their last three matches overall are LDL, averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. The model's projection implies a substantial step up from that recent output.

Allerheiligen have 0 wins in three away matches (0W 1D 2L), scoring 1.33 and conceding 5.33 on average. Their last five outings read DLDLL with 1.0 goal scored and 3.8 conceded per match. That defensive record is the most striking input behind the model's lopsided projection.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record. The head-to-head sample is too small to lean on, leaving the model to work from each side's recent form alone.

Hartberg II's single home game produced two goals each way. Allerheiligen have been conceding heavily on the road, at 5.33 per away match, while scoring 1.33. The venue data is thin but consistent with a high-scoring home advantage.

Both teams enter with nine days' rest, so there is no short-turnaround factor. With no league table data available, the model's medium confidence reflects the limited sample of matches played this season. Allerheiligen's recent away conceding rate is the dominant input.

The Poisson model gives Hartberg II a 90.3% win probability, a 5.3% draw chance and 4.3% for the away side. The most likely exact scorelines are 6-1 and 5-1, each at 5.7%, with overall goals projected at about 7.76. The model sees at least two goals in 99.6% of simulations and a home win by two or more in 81.3%.

The data points to a comfortable Hartberg II win with several goals, most likely by a margin of two or more. The projection would be undermined if the small sample of form data flatters the home side or understates Allerheiligen's potential. Based on what is recorded, a high-scoring home victory is the clear expectation.