Torpedo Moscow3-0Spartak Kostroma

Torpedo Moscow host Spartak Kostroma at Arena Khimki in Round 8 of the Russian FNL. The model gives the visitors a 62.8% win probability, with a projected scoreline of 0-1. No prior meetings between these sides are on record.

Torpedo's last five matches read WLLDW, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. At home over their last three, they have one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33.

Spartak Kostroma are unbeaten in their last five (DWDDW), averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded. On the road they have won two and drawn one of their last three, conceding just 0.33 per game.

There are no recorded meetings between these two clubs, so head-to-head history offers no guide. The sample is effectively zero, leaving the model and recent form as the only references.

Torpedo's home numbers are modest, with a 33.3% win rate in their last three at Arena Khimki. Spartak's away record is stronger, with a 66.7% win rate and a defensive average of 0.33 conceded per game, compared to their overall recent mark of 0.8.

Torpedo had six days of rest before this match, while Spartak are on a four-day turnaround, flagged as congested. The away side's recent form and road solidity are the main factors the model draws on.

The Poisson model projects about 1.9 total goals, with a 56.6% chance of at least two. Spartak's win probability is 62.8%, and the most likely exact scorelines are 0-1 (21.8%), 0-2 (16%), and 0-0 (15%). The margin distribution favors an away win by two or more (33.2%) or by one (29.6%), pointing to a low-scoring, potentially decisive outcome.

The data consistently points to a Spartak Kostroma victory, supported by strong away performance and the model's clear lean. A draw is the second-most plausible result at 26.2%, so the main risk to the projection is a tightly contested match settling level.