Toronto Tempo95-101Indiana Fever

This WNBA fixture sends the Toronto Tempo to host the Indiana Fever at Coca-Cola Coliseum. Neither side's league table record is available, so this preview leans on venue splits, recent form, and the model's projections.

The most important number is the model's win probability: 69.2% for the Fever against 30.8% for the Tempo. The model also projects a 90-96 result, a margin of about six points in Indiana's favor.

The teams have met only once before, with Indiana winning 113-91. That game produced 204 total points, while the model projects roughly 185 for this meeting.

Toronto's recent form is a five-game losing streak, with an average of 85.4 points scored and 97.2 conceded in those games. That defensive average is higher than their home concession rate of 90.39 over the last 18 games.

At home in that same 18-game sample, Toronto is 6-12, a 33.3% win rate. The Tempo average 84.61 points per game at Coca-Cola Coliseum while allowing 90.39.

The Tempo last played on 2026-08-13 and have had five days of rest. No league table data is provided, so their overall standing is not part of this analysis.

Indiana's last five games show a LWWWL pattern, giving them three wins in that stretch. They have averaged 93.8 points scored and 89.2 conceded across those five.

On the road over the last 20 games, the Fever are 11-9, a 55% win rate. Their road scoring average is 91.6 points per game, with 89.8 conceded.

Indiana played on 2026-08-16, just two days before this fixture, a short turnaround that is flagged as congested. This is the one scheduling caution attached to the visitors.

Only one previous meeting between these teams is on record. On 2026-06-16, Indiana hosted Toronto and won 113-91.

Toronto's record in that game is 0-1, while Indiana's is 1-0. The sample is far too small to treat as a reliable pattern.

The head-to-head total of 204 points is the only scoring reference from their prior meeting. The model's projected total of about 185 is below that, but the one-game sample makes any comparison weak.

Toronto's home record over the last 18 games is 6-12, a 33.3% win rate, with an average of 84.61 points scored and 90.39 allowed. That leaves a negative margin of about 5.8 points per home game.

Indiana's road record over the last 20 games is 11-9, a 55% win rate, with 91.6 points scored and 89.8 allowed. The Fever's road scoring average is roughly seven points higher than Toronto's home scoring average.

The home-away split is therefore tilted toward the visitors. Toronto has been below .500 at home, while Indiana has been above .500 on the road in the available samples.

Rest is the most visible difference between the sides. Toronto has had five days since their last game, while Indiana's turnaround is two days, flagged as congested.

Indiana's recent form and road record both favor the visitors, while Toronto's losing streak and sub-.500 home mark point in the same direction.

The model's medium confidence and the single head-to-head meeting mean the projection should not be treated as a certainty.

The model assigns Indiana a 69.2% win probability and Toronto a 30.8% probability. That makes the away win the most likely outcome.

The projected score is 90-96, with expected values of 89.8 for Toronto and 95.5 for Indiana. The projected margin is -5.7 from Toronto's perspective, about a six-point game.

The model projects roughly 185 total points. The margin distribution shows Indiana winning by 1-10 points in 35.6% of simulations and by 11 or more in 33.6%. Toronto wins by 1-10 in 21.7% and by 11 or more in 9.1%.

The largest single margin bracket is an Indiana win by single digits, but the combined probability of an Indiana win by double figures is also substantial. The model's confidence is medium.

The data points to an Indiana win. The Fever have the better road record, the better recent form, and a clear probability edge in the model.

The projected margin is modest — about six points — and the most common margin bracket is an Indiana win by single digits. A double-digit Indiana win is also a strong possibility, at 33.6%.

The projection would be wrong if Toronto scores well above the model's 89.8 expected value or if Indiana falls well short of 95.5. The medium confidence level, along with the one-meeting head-to-head sample, is the honest caveat to that forecast.