Toronto RaptorsvsMiami Heat

Toronto and Miami open the 2026-27 season at Scotiabank Arena, with neither side carrying any league-table data into the fixture. The model makes Toronto a 59.8% favourite and projects a 119-116 scoreline, a 2.8-point margin. Both teams last played competitive basketball in the spring, so the projections rest on last season's splits rather than current form.

Toronto closed their recorded home schedule with 14 wins from 20, a 70% home rate, averaging 116.7 points scored and 106.65 conceded. Their last five games read LWLWW at 110.6 scored and 108.4 conceded, a lower scoring output than their home split. No table position is on record for them.

Miami's away record over the same 20-game window is 9-11, a 45% rate, at 119.7 scored and 118.8 conceded per game. Their last five read LWWLL, averaging 123.6 scored and 122 conceded. Those are the highest scoring figures in the data block, at both ends.

Eight meetings are on record, with Toronto leading 5-3 and a 912-867 aggregate, an average of 222.38 points per meeting. Toronto have won the four most recent of those meetings. An eight-game sample is thin, and the model's 235-point projection sits well above the historical 222.38 average.

Toronto's home split and Miami's away split sit at opposite ends of the data. Toronto concede 106.65 at home; Miami average 119.7 on the road, a gap of roughly 13 points. No overall season splits are on record for either team, so the two figures cannot be set against a neutral baseline.

Both sides open the season after long layoffs — 153 days for Toronto, 172 for Miami — so this is a first competitive outing rather than a continuation of form. With no league table on record for either team, the venue splits and the head-to-head results carry most of the weight. The model flags medium confidence rather than high.

The model gives Toronto 59.8% and Miami 40.2%, with expected values of 118.8 and 116 points and a projected total of about 235. Margins are expected to be tight: 61.7% of the distribution falls inside ten points, split 34.7% Toronto by 1-10 and 27% Miami by 1-10. Double-digit margins account for the remaining 38.3%, leaning Toronto's way at 25.1% against 13.2%.

The data points to a narrow Toronto win: a 70% home rate against Miami's 45% away rate, and four straight head-to-head wins, with the model at 59.8%. Miami's away scoring average of 119.7 points is the number that could overturn that, since it exceeds Toronto's home allowance of 106.65. Given medium confidence and a sub-three-point projected margin, that is a lean rather than a settled call.