The New SaintsvsFlora Tallinn

The New Saints host Flora Tallinn in the UEFA Conference League with a 60.7% win probability according to the model. The Welsh side will aim to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first leg, where they lost in Estonia. Both teams have identical rest periods of seven days, and the data suggests a tight contest with an expected scoreline of 1-0.

The New Saints have struggled recently, winning none of their last five matches (0W 1D 4L), scoring an average of 0.4 goals per game while conceding 1.4. However, their home form offers a brighter picture: in their last four home matches they have one win, one draw, and two losses, averaging 1.25 goals scored per game. The home advantage appears to boost their attacking output.

Flora Tallinn have also found wins hard to come by of late, with just one win in their last five matches (1W 1D 3L). They have averaged 1.2 goals scored but conceded 2.4 per game in that stretch. On the road, their two most recent away games produced one draw and one loss, with an average of 1.5 goals scored but two conceded. Defensive vulnerabilities on the road may be a concern.

There is only one prior meeting between these sides, which took place on July 23, 2026. Flora Tallinn won that match 1-0 at home. With such a small sample size, the head-to-head record offers limited predictive value, but it does suggest that Flora are capable of keeping The New Saints from scoring.

The New Saints have performed better at home than overall, with a win rate of 25% in their last four home games compared to 0% in their last five overall. Their home scoring rate (1.25 per game) is significantly higher than their overall recent average (0.4 per game). Conversely, Flora Tallinn's away form shows no wins in their last two road games, though their scoring rate (1.5 per away game) is above their overall average (1.2 per game), indicating they can find the net on the road despite defensive lapses.

Both teams have had a full week to prepare, with seven days since their last match, so fatigue is not a factor. The model indicates medium confidence, partly due to the sparse head-to-head data. The New Saints' improved home form and Flora's away defensive issues are the main factors the model weighs. Additionally, The New Saints must overcome a one-goal aggregate deficit, which tilts the probabilities toward an attacking approach from the hosts.

The Poisson model assigns a 60.7% probability of a home win, with a 21.2% chance of a draw and 18.1% for an away victory. The projected scoreline is 1-0, with expected goals of 1.99 for The New Saints and 0.99 for Flora Tallinn. The most likely exact scores are 1-0 and 2-0, each with 10.1% likelihood, followed by 1-1 at 10%. The model sees a low-scoring match favoring the hosts.

The data points to a narrow home victory for The New Saints, given their superior home form and the model's strong win probability. However, the visitors proved capable in the first leg, and the limited head-to-head sample leaves room for uncertainty. If The New Saints can replicate their home scoring average, they should advance, but Flora's away scoring threat means a clean sheet is not guaranteed.