Tartu Kalev2-1Tartu U21 Tammeka

This is a Round 24 fixture in Estonian Esiliiga B, with Tartu Kalev hosting Tartu U21 Tammeka at Ülenurme staadion. The model's clearest signal is a strongly anticipated home win: Tartu Kalev carry a 93.9% win probability, with the projected scoreline sitting around 5-1. League table positions are not available for either side, so the focus shifts to recent form and the model's projections.

The home side have been prolific at home recently, averaging five goals per game in their last three matches at this venue, while the away side have not won on the road in their last two attempts. Both teams come into the match with five days' rest since their previous outings on August 15.

Tartu Kalev's recent form shows a side scoring freely, with an average of 4.2 goals per match across their last five games. Their record in that span is WWLWW, with four wins and one defeat.

Their home numbers are even more striking: in the last three home matches they are undefeated, with three wins, scoring an average of five goals per game and conceding 1.33. That home output outpaces their recent overall scoring average, underlining the strength of their attacking play at Ülenurme staadion.

Tartu U21 Tammeka have gone winless in their last two away matches, drawing both, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Their overall recent form shows a pattern of draws followed by wins: DDDWW, with an average of 2.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded across the last five.

The away record is a contrast to their overall recent scoring, which is decent but not high. The lack of wins on the road suggests difficulty in securing victories away from home, though the sample is small.

There are no prior meetings between Tartu Kalev and Tartu U21 Tammeka on record. This means the head-to-head sample is empty, and historical results provide no basis for prediction.

Given the absence of any previous encounters, the model's projections rest entirely on recent form and goal data rather than any established pattern between the two sides. This is a point of uncertainty in an otherwise clear statistical picture.

The venue data reinforces the home advantage. Tartu Kalev have won all of their last three home matches, averaging five goals scored per game, which is higher than their overall recent scoring average of 4.2. At the same time, Tartu U21 Tammeka have not won any of their last two away matches, averaging 1.5 goals per game, below their overall recent average of 2.4.

The combination of a high-scoring home side and a road team that has been drawing suggests the model's expectation of a lopsided scoreline fits with the split stats. It is worth noting, however, that the away sample is just two matches, so those numbers carry limited weight.

The most salient factor is the gap in attacking output. Tartu Kalev score an average of five goals per home game, while Tammeka U21 score 1.5 goals per away game. The model's projected total of about 7.3 goals reflects this imbalance.

Both teams have had five days of rest since their last match, so there is no short-turnaround issue. There is also no head-to-head record to complicate the projection, and no league table data is available to assess broader context.

The Poisson goal model gives Tartu Kalev a 93.9% win probability, with a draw at 3.8% and an away win at 2.4%. The projected scoreline is 5-1, based on expected goals of approximately 6.0 for the home side and 1.3 for the away side.

The most likely individual scorelines are 5-1, 6-1, and 7-1, each with around 6-7% probability. The model's total-goals projection is about 7.29, with a 99.3% chance of at least two goals and a 92% chance of at least four. The model also sees a 72.9% probability that both teams score at least once.

The winning-margin distribution is heavily skewed toward a home win by two or more goals, which is projected at 86.6%. A home win by exactly one goal is at 7.3%, a draw at 3.8%, and an away win at a combined 2.4%. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting the limited data on the away side's road performances and the lack of head-to-head meetings.

The data collectively points to a comfortable home victory. Tartu Kalev's recent home form is powerful, and Tammeka U21's away form lacks wins. The model's 93.9% home win probability and projected 5-1 scoreline are consistent with the available numbers.

The main caveats are the small samples—three home games for the hosts and two away games for the visitors—and the absence of any head-to-head meetings. A result other than a home win would require a substantial deviation from the recent goal rates, which the model deems unlikely but not impossible given medium confidence.