Tartu Kalev1-1Tallinna Kalev U21

This Round 25 Esiliiga B fixture sees Tartu Kalev host Tallinna Kalev U21 at Ülenurme staadion. The model gives the home side a 93.5% win probability and projects a 6-1 scoreline. The two teams have no prior meetings on record, making this the first data point in the series.

Tartu Kalev have won all four of their recorded home matches, averaging 4.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Their last five overall show four wins and one loss (WWWLW), with an average of 2.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Home form is clearly the strongest part of their profile.

Tallinna Kalev U21 have not won in their last three away games (0W 1D 2L), conceding an average of 3.67 goals. Their recent overall record is DDWLL, averaging 2.2 scored and 3 conceded. The away defensive numbers are the weakest point in the fixture.

There are no prior meetings on record between these clubs. With zero historical matches, the head-to-head gives no basis for adjustment, so the model relies entirely on current season strength estimates.

Tartu Kalev's home numbers — 4W 0D 0L with 4.25 scored per game — are stronger than their recent overall average. Tallinna Kalev U21's away form is winless, and they concede 3.67 per game on the road, the largest home-away gap in the fixture.

The away side are on a four-day turnaround, having last played on 2026-08-21, while the home side have five days' rest. That schedule difference, combined with the away side's poor road defense, is factored into the model's projection. The fixture is also a first-ever meeting, adding uncertainty to the estimate.

The model's confidence is medium, but it strongly favors the home side: 93.5% win probability, 3.9% draw, 2.6% away win. Total goals are projected at about 7.38, with a 99.4% chance of at least two goals and a 92.4% chance of four or more. The most likely exact scores are 6-1 and 5-1 (both 6.6%), and a home win by two or more goals carries 86% probability. Each side scoring at least once is put at 74.5%.

The data points to a comfortable home victory, with the projected 6-1 scoreline reflecting a large expected quality gap. The away side's winless road record and short turnaround reinforce the model's lean. A draw or away win would require the away side to sharply outperform their recent away numbers; with no head-to-head history, that is not impossible, but the model sees it as unlikely.