Tallinna Kalev U213-3Tallinna Legion

Round 24 of the Estonian Esiliiga B brings Tallinna Kalev U21 and Tallinna Legion together at Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru. League table positions are not available in the data, but the hosts' recent home form is stark: two wins from two, outscoring opponents 7-2. The visitors have conceded ten goals across their last two away games, setting up a lopsided contest on paper.

Tallinna Kalev U21 have won both of their most recent home matches, scoring seven and conceding two. Across their last five games overall, they average 2.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, a run of two wins, one draw and two losses. The attack has been productive, though the defence has not been as tight outside their home fortress.

Tallinna Legion's last two away fixtures produced one win and one loss, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and five conceded. Their five-match form reads two wins, one draw and two losses, averaging 1.8 scored and 3.2 conceded. Defensive numbers on the road are especially heavy, conceding at a rate of five per game.

There are no prior meetings between Tallinna Kalev U21 and Tallinna Legion on record. This head-to-head sample is empty, so the fixture's outlook rests entirely on current form and the model's projection rather than historical precedent.

At home, Tallinna Kalev U21 average 3.5 goals per game, while Tallinna Legion average five goals conceded per away game. Away from home, Tallinna Legion score 1.5 per game, slightly below their overall recent average of 1.8. The contrast is pronounced, though both splits are based on just two matches.

Both sides have had similar rest periods, with the hosts on five days and the visitors on six. The dominant factor is the visitors' defensive vulnerability in away matches, coupled with the hosts' strong scoring at home. The absence of any head-to-head history also removes a potential reference point, leaving the model's assessment as the primary guide.

The Poisson model gives Tallinna Kalev U21 a 96% win probability, with a draw at 2.6% and an away win at 1.3%. It projects a 6-0 scoreline as one of the joint most likely exact results, alongside 5-0 and 6-1, each around 7%. The model expects roughly seven total goals, with a 99.1% chance of at least two and a 90.3% chance of four or more. Confidence is medium, and the winning-margin outlook heavily favours the home side by two or more goals at 90.3%.

The data points decisively toward a home win, reinforced by the model's 96% probability and the visitors' recent away defensive numbers. The main uncertainties are the small sample sizes — two home games and two away games — and the lack of head-to-head meetings. If the away side's defensive record improves sharply or the home side's finishing dips, the margin could narrow, but the balance of evidence strongly favours Tallinna Kalev U21.