Tabasalu6-0Pärnu U21 Vaprus

Tabasalu host Pärnu U21 Vaprus at Tabasalu Arena in Round 25 of the Estonian Esiliiga B. The home side are unbeaten in their last three home matches, while the visitors have not won any of their last four away games. The model gives Tabasalu a 94.6% win probability, the strongest projected outcome on this fixture.

Tabasalu's last five matches read DDLWL, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. At home, their last three matches have brought two wins and a draw, scoring two per game and conceding 0.67. The overall recent form is mixed, but the home sample is strong.

Pärnu U21 Vaprus are without a win in their last four away matches, recording one draw and three losses while conceding an average of 2.75 goals. Their five-match form is DLDLL, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded. Defensive issues have been a recurring pattern.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides, so the head-to-head offers no basis for prediction. The sample is too small to lean on.

The home and away splits reinforce the gap: Tabasalu have won two of three at home, while Pärnu have none in four on the road. The venue advantage, combined with scoring rates, points strongly in one direction.

Both teams enter on four days' rest following matches on 20 August, so neither side has an edge in schedule. The short turnaround characterises both camps. The lack of any head-to-head history adds uncertainty to the projection.

The Poisson model, with medium confidence, projects a 4-0 home win, with expected goals of 4.39 for Tabasalu and 0.55 for Pärnu. The most likely exact scorelines are 4-0, 3-0 and 5-0. The model expects around 4.94 total goals, with a 95.6% chance of at least two goals and a 71.7% chance of at least four. It also gives an 85.5% probability of a home victory by two or more, while each side scoring at least once stands at just 41.8%.

The data points decisively toward a comfortable home win, with the model's margin distribution heavily weighted toward a two-goal-plus victory. The medium confidence rating and the absence of any previous meetings mean an upset cannot be dismissed entirely, but the weight of the numbers is overwhelmingly in Tabasalu's favour.