Stoke CityvsEverton

This Club Friendly fixture at the bet365 Stadium marks the start of the 2026 season for both Stoke City and Everton after extended off-season breaks. With no competitive matches played since May, both sides arrive with limited recent form data. The Poisson model gives Stoke a 46.8% chance of winning, the most likely outcome, while the draw and Everton win are rated at 27.5% and 25.7% respectively. The projected scoreline is 1-0.

The model's confidence is medium, reflecting the absence of any head-to-head history and the fact that both teams are opening their campaigns. Under such circumstances, the home side's slight statistical advantage is worth noting, but the friendly context introduces additional uncertainty.

Stoke City's last 20 home matches across all competitions produced 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game while conceding 1.3. Their win rate at the bet365 Stadium stands at 35%. However, their most recent five matches overall ended in four defeats and a draw (LLL LD), with an average of only 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded.

The poor run of form entering the break is not ideal, but the 87-day gap since their last match on May 2 means the slate is effectively clean. Stoke will be eager to reset and begin the new season on a positive note at home.

Everton's last 20 away fixtures have yielded 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game, with a 40% win rate. Their recent form over the final five matches of the previous campaign was similar: two losses, two draws, and a defeat (LLD DL), averaging 1.4 goals scored but also 2.2 conceded.

The 65-day layoff since their last outing on May 24 means Everton have had slightly less time to prepare than their hosts. Their away record is marginally stronger than Stoke's home record, but the friendly setting and long break could neutralize any travel advantage.

No prior meetings between Stoke City and Everton are on record. The lack of head-to-head data makes the model's projections less anchored in historical precedent than usual, placing more weight on each team's recent form and venue splits.

Stoke City's home record over the last 20 matches shows a balanced but slightly below-par 35% win rate, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Everton's away record over the same period is marginally better at 40% wins, with a slightly lower scoring average (1.1) and defensive average (1.15).

The numbers suggest a narrow home advantage, but the gap is small. In a season opener with no prior meetings, the venue may not carry its usual weight.

Both teams are coming off extended off-season breaks — Stoke with 87 days of rest, Everton with 65 days. Since this is a season opener, neither side has recent competitive rhythm, which can lead to slower starts or unpredictable performances.

The model's confidence is set to 'medium', partly due to the lack of head-to-head data and the fact that both teams' form comes from the end of the previous campaign. The friendly nature of the fixture may also lead to rotations or experimentation, though the model does not account for such variables.

According to the Poisson goal model, Stoke City are the most likely winners with a 46.8% probability, while the draw (27.5%) and Everton win (25.7%) are less favored. The projected scoreline of 1-0 reflects expected goals of 1.37 for Stoke and 0.94 for Everton. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (12.8%), and 0-0 (9.9%).

The model's medium confidence suggests that while Stoke have a clear edge, the outcome is far from certain. Low-scoring scenarios dominate the probabilities, with more than two goals being less likely.

The data points to a tight, low-scoring affair with Stoke City holding a moderate advantage, largely due to home ground and a slightly higher expected goal output. Everton's away record is competitive, but their recent form and the model's projection favor the hosts.

Given the lack of head-to-head history and the season-opening context, the most likely outcome — a Stoke win — is supported by the numbers but not emphatically. A draw or a narrow Everton victory would not be surprising. The model's projection of 1-0 is the single most probable scoreline, but other low-scoring draws remain plausible.