Stockholm Internazionale2-0Järfälla

Stockholm Internazionale host Järfälla at Hammarby IP in Round 18 of the Swedish Division 1 North. The model rates the home side's win probability at 89.1%, projecting a 3-0 scoreline. The visitors arrive having lost four of their last five, while the hosts have four wins from five.

Stockholm Internazionale have won four of their last five matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in that stretch. Their last two home games ended in victories, with an average of three goals scored and 0.5 conceded.

Järfälla have lost four of their last five, averaging one goal scored and 2.6 conceded. Their last two away matches produced one win and one loss, with an average of two scored and 1.5 conceded. The most recent match in the overall run was a defeat.

The two sides have met only once on record, with Stockholm Internazionale winning 4-0 away on August 1, 2026. That solitary meeting produced four goals, but a single head-to-head data point is too small a sample to carry much weight.

Stockholm Internazionale have won their last two home games, while Järfälla have split their last two away games. The home side have scored three per game at Hammarby IP during that stretch, and the visitors have conceded an average of 1.5 on the road.

Neither side has a meaningful rest advantage, with five days for the hosts and six for the visitors. The model's 89.1% home win probability reflects the hosts' strong recent run and the visitors' four losses in five. The single previous meeting offers too little evidence to challenge that view.

The model projects a 3-0 home win, with expected goals of 3.59 to 0.66. The most likely exact scorelines are 3-0, 4-0, and 2-0, and the model expects about 4.25 total goals. It gives a 74.8% chance of a home win by two or more, a 46.9% chance of both teams scoring, and only a 3.4% chance of an away win in any margin.

All inputs point to a decisive home victory, with the model, recent form, and the lone head-to-head result aligned. An away win is a rare outcome in the model at 3.4%. The medium confidence level and the minimal head-to-head sample are the main reasons to treat the margin, rather than the result, as uncertain.