Stade de Reims3-1Annecy

This Ligue 2 fixture pits Stade de Reims against Annecy at Stade Auguste Delaune, with both sides entering Round 3 on 10 days' rest. The model gives Reims a 52.8% win probability, yet projects a 1-1 scoreline, underscoring how narrow the edge is. Neither team's league table position is available in the data.

Reims' last five matches produced three draws and two wins, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Across their last 20 home games, they have 9 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 1.2. Their home win rate is 45%.

Annecy's last five matches brought three wins, one draw, and one loss, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Away from home over 20 games, they sit at 9 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, with identical scoring and conceding averages of 1.35 goals per game. Their away win rate is also 45%.

Only two prior meetings are on record. Reims won one and drew the other, scoring 3 goals to Annecy's 2. The results were a 2-1 home win for Reims in January 2026 and a 1-1 draw in September 2025. This sample is too small to carry much weight.

Reims' home record shows more draws than Annecy's away record: 6 draws in 20 home games versus 2 in 20 away games. Both sides win at a 45% clip in these splits, while Reims concede slightly fewer goals at home (1.2 per game) than Annecy do on the road (1.35). The home side's scoring average at home is 1.6, compared with Annecy's 1.35 away.

Both teams have had the same 10-day rest period since their last matches on 14 August. The model's confidence is medium, and the head-to-head sample is just two games. With no league table data provided, the match context is limited to these recent and split records.

The Poisson model assigns a 52.8% win probability to Reims, 23.8% to the draw, and 23.4% to Annecy, with medium confidence. The projected scoreline is 1-1, and the highest single scoreline probability is 1-1 at 11.3%, ahead of 1-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.7%). Total goals are projected at 2.79, with a 76.7% chance of two or more goals and a 53.8% chance that both teams score. From Reims' perspective, a win by two or more goals (29%) is slightly more likely than a one-goal win (23.8%), with the draw also at 23.8%.

The data points to a narrow home win, with Reims' 52.8% probability and slightly better home defensive record the key factors. The 1-1 projected scoreline and the three draws in Reims' last five matches, however, keep the draw a substantial threat. The largest winning-margin category is a Reims win by two or more goals (29%), ahead of a one-goal win and the draw (both 23.8%). The projection would be undermined if Reims' recent draw rate proves more persistent than the model's expected-goals differential suggests.