Sporting San JosévsInter de San Carlos

Sporting San José host Inter de San Carlos in Round 6 of the Costa Rican Liga FPD at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann. The model gives the hosts a 73.8% win probability and projects a 1-0 scoreline. Both teams played on the same day and have had six days of rest.

Sporting San José's recent form is W-W-L-L-D, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. At home in their last two fixtures they have one win and one draw, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 per game. No league table position is on record.

Inter de San Carlos have won three of their last five matches (W-W-W-D-L), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Away from home over their past two fixtures they have one win and one loss, with 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Their table position is also unavailable.

No prior meetings between these two clubs are on record. With such a small sample, the head-to-head provides no reliable signal for this match.

Sporting San José's home numbers show a sturdier defence than their overall recent form, conceding 0.5 per home game versus 1.0 over all matches. Inter de San Carlos's away form is leakier, conceding 1.5 per game on the road compared with 0.8 overall. The venue data reinforces the home side's advantage.

Both sides have had six days of rest since their last match, so neither holds an edge on recovery. No league table data is available for either team, and there is no head-to-head history, which adds uncertainty. These gaps keep the projection from being more precise.

The Poisson model assigns Sporting San José a 73.8% win probability, a draw at 20.1% and an away win at 6.1%, with a projected scoreline of 1-0 from expected values of 1.79 and 0.33 goals. The top individual scoreline probabilities are 1-0 (21.5%), 2-0 (19.3%) and 0-0 (12%). Total goals are projected at about 2.12, with a 62.6% chance of at least two goals and a 23.4% chance both teams score. From the home perspective, the model's largest margin probability is a win by two or more goals at 45.3%, followed by a one-goal win at 28.5%; confidence is medium.

The data points firmly to a Sporting San José victory, with the model's 73.8% win probability and projected 1-0 scoreline. A draw is the only outcome with a probability above 20%, while an away win is at 6.1%. That assessment would be wrong if the lack of head-to-head history or league table data masks a different reality, but on the available numbers the hosts are clear favorites.