Spokane Velocity2-1Greenville Triumph

USL League One's Round 25 brings Spokane Velocity and Greenville Triumph together for the first time on record. The model is clear: Spokane have a 75.3% win probability, while Greenville's away form shows no wins in their last three matches on the road.

Spokane's last four home matches yielded two wins, a draw and a loss, with an average of 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Their five-match overall run includes three wins, with 2.2 goals scored and one conceded per game.

Greenville have not won in three away matches, collecting one draw and two losses while averaging 0.33 goals scored. Over their last five matches in all venues, they have a single win, three draws and one loss, with 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.

There are no prior meetings between Spokane and Greenville on record, so this fixture offers no historical head-to-head signal. The sample is effectively empty, meaning any form comparison rests entirely on recent domestic matches.

Spokane's home scoring rate (2.25 per game) is close to their overall recent average (2.2), while their home concession rate (1.25) is slightly higher than their overall 1.0. Greenville's away form is a dramatic drop-off: they average 0.33 goals scored away compared to 1.6 across all recent matches, with a 0% win rate in their last three road games.

Both sides have similar rest, with Spokane at seven days and Greenville at eight since their last matches. The lack of any head-to-head history adds uncertainty, and the model's medium confidence reflects that. Greenville's away scoring output is the starkest discrepancy in the data.

The Poisson model gives Spokane a 75.3% chance of winning, with a 19.7% draw probability and just 5% for a Greenville win. The projected scoreline is 1-0, and the most likely individual scorelines are 1-0 (22.7%) and 2-0 (20.3%). Total goals are projected at about 2.07, with a 61.2% chance of two or more goals, and the probability of both sides scoring is 20.1%. The model predicts a home win by two or more at 46.6% and a one-goal home win at 28.7%, with a draw at 19.7%.

The data points to a Spokane win, driven by their home productivity and Greenville's minimal away scoring. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, while the model also gives a 46.6% chance of a home win by two or more. The absence of prior meetings and the model's medium confidence mean an upset cannot be ruled out, and a draw is a credible secondary outcome.