Soles de Mexicali78-71Mineros de Zacatecas

Both sides return to the floor a day after meeting in the same venue, with Soles de Mexicali having taken the first game 83-68. The home side are unbeaten across their last five at Auditorio PSF, and the model gives them a 74.3% chance of repeating. A short turnaround for both teams adds an element of fatigue to a fixture that already has limited head-to-head history.

No league table record is available for Soles de Mexicali this season. At home they have won all five games in the sample, averaging 76.2 points scored and 67 conceded. Their overall recent run is five straight wins, scoring 86 per night while allowing 73. This is their second game in two days.

Mineros de Zacatecas also lack a published league table record. Away from home they have split their last six, winning three and losing three, while averaging 83.67 scored and 81.83 conceded. Their recent form includes four wins in five, with the only defeat coming in the most recent outing—the 83-68 loss to Soles.

The teams have met only once on record: Soles de Mexicali won 83-68 on 2026-08-21. With a single meeting available, the head-to-head sample is too small to carry decisive weight, though it does match the direction of the model's projection.

Soles' home numbers are strong across the board: a 5-0 record, with 76.2 scored and 67 conceded. Mineros, by contrast, have been more vulnerable on the road, conceding 81.83 per away game while scoring 83.67. The away side's tendency to allow points on the road aligns with the model's expectation of a higher-scoring contest.

Both teams played 24 hours ago and are on one day's rest, so recovery is a factor. Mineros have shown better scoring form recently but have also leaked points away from home. The only prior meeting between these sides came in their last match, which Soles won by 15 points.

The normal-distribution model gives Soles de Mexicali a 74.3% win probability, with an expected score of 85-77 and a projected margin of about 7.5 points. Total points are projected at roughly 162. The margin distribution shows a home win by 11 or more is the single most likely outcome at 39.5%, while a closer home win sits at 34.8%; an away win is less likely at 25.7%. The model's confidence is medium.

The data collectively points to a Soles de Mexicali victory, backed by a perfect home record and a recent head-to-head win. The model's medium confidence and the compressed schedule, however, leave room for a tighter contest than the win probability suggests. If Mineros can improve defensively on the road, they could push the projected margin lower.