Sloga Doboj0-0Čelik Zenica

This Round 5 Bosnian Premier Liga fixture sees Sloga Doboj host Čelik Zenica at Gradski stadion Luke, with both sides arriving on zero rest. The model's standout number is a 75.8% probability of a draw, with a projected scoreline of 0-0 and only about 0.3 total goals expected. Neither side has a league table record in the data, so this is a limited sample to work from.

Sloga Doboj have no league table record in the data. At home in their last one match they drew 0-0, scoring and conceding zero. Across their last four matches overall (DWLD) they average 0.25 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, pointing to a solid but score-shy side.

Čelik Zenica also lack a league table record. Away from home over their last three matches they are winless (0W 2D 1L), averaging 0.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Their recent five-match run (DWDLL) shows a higher average of 1 goal scored and 0.8 conceded, though away scoring has been notably lower.

Only one prior meeting between these sides is on record: a 0-0 draw on 2026-09-01. That sample is far too small to lean on for any meaningful pattern, but the single match produced no goals, consistent with the model's projection.

Sloga's single home match mirrors their overall recent numbers: no goals scored or conceded. Čelik's away average of 0.33 goals scored is less than half their recent overall average of 1.0, though the away sample is only three matches. Small samples in both cases limit the strength of any venue-based conclusion.

Both teams are flagged for a congested short turnaround, having played on the same day as this fixture. There is also no league table data available, leaving season context thin. The model projects about 0.3 total goals, so a high-scoring game is not supported.

The Poisson model gives a 75.8% probability of a draw, with home and away wins each at 12.1%, and projects a 0-0 scoreline with 0.15 expected goals per side. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-0 at 74.1%; the probability of 2+ total goals is just 3.7% and each side scoring at least once sits at 1.9%. Winning margins are overwhelmingly narrow: a draw 75.8%, a one-goal win either way 11.2% each, and a win by 2+ only 0.9% combined. Model confidence is medium.

The data points decisively toward a goalless draw, with the model's projected 0-0 and 75.8% draw probability the strongest signals. The alternative outcomes are 1-0 wins either way, each at 11.2%, with wins by 2+ combined at just 1.8%. The medium confidence and tiny samples mean a single goal would alter the picture, but the underlying numbers give little reason to expect one.