Skanstes6-2Tukums II

This Round 18 Latvian First League fixture pits Skanstes, who won two of their last three home matches, against a Tukums II side that has lost all three of its most recent away games. No league table data is available for either team, so the preview leans on recent results and the model's projections. The model gives the home side a 96.7% win probability.

Skanstes' last three home matches produced two wins and one loss, with an average of 3 goals scored and 2 conceded per game. Their overall recent form across five matches is DWWLL, averaging 2.2 scored and 1.8 conceded. They last played on 2026-08-23, seven days before this fixture.

Tukums II have lost all three of their most recent away matches, scoring an average of 0.67 goals and conceding 5 per game. Their last five overall read LDLWL, averaging 1 scored and 3.2 conceded. They last played on 2026-08-09, giving them a 21-day break.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record, so the head-to-head offers no basis for comparison. The sample is too small to draw any conclusion.

Skanstes have a 66.7% win rate at home over the last three matches, with games averaging five total goals. Tukums II have a 0% win rate away, conceding five per match on average. This venue has not hosted a previous meeting between the two.

Rest days differ sharply: Skanstes have seven days of rest, Tukums II have 21. Tukums II's away form is poor, conceding five per game, while Skanstes score three per home match in their recent sample. With no league table data, schedule strength cannot be assessed.

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is a Skanstes win at 96.7%, with a draw at 2.3% and an away win at 1%. The projected score is 6-0, with the highest-probability exact scores being 6-0 and 5-0 (both 7.9%), followed by 6-1 (6.9%). The model expects about 6.88 total goals and gives a 91.3% probability of the home side winning by two or more. Confidence is medium.

The data points strongly to a home win with a large margin, backed by Tukums II's away struggles and the model's projections. The lack of head-to-head and league table context, plus medium confidence, are the main uncertainties. An upset would require a major deviation from recent form and expected goals.