SKA-KhabarovskvsTorpedo Moscow

SKA-Khabarovsk host Torpedo Moscow in Russian FNL Round 9 at Lenin Stadium. The model gives the visitors an 84.9% win probability, with a projected score of 0-2. Torpedo's expected goals stand at 2.63 versus 0.4 for the hosts.

SKA-Khabarovsk have one win and four losses in their last five matches (LWLLL), averaging 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded. Over their last three home games they are 1W-0D-2L, with 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per match. No league table position is available from the data.

Torpedo Moscow have two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five (WWLLD), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. In their last two away games they have one win and one loss, averaging 2.0 scored and 0.5 conceded per match. Their league table position is likewise not recorded.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record. With no head-to-head sample to draw on, the fixture offers no historical pattern.

At home, SKA-Khabarovsk have lost two of their last three, matching their overall scoring rate (1.0 per game) while conceding slightly less (2.0 versus 2.2). Torpedo Moscow have averaged 2.0 away goals per game in their last two trips, above their overall recent average of 1.8, though the sample is small.

Both sides have had adequate rest: six days for the hosts since August 24 and nine days for the visitors since August 21. The model assigns the home side just a 3.7% win probability, reflecting the gulf in recent form. The absence of head-to-head data and the model's medium confidence temper the projection.

The model gives Torpedo Moscow an 84.9% win probability, the draw 11.4%, and SKA-Khabarovsk 3.7%. It projects about 3.03 total goals, with an 80.5% chance of two or more and 58.4% of three or more. The top projected exact scores are 0-2 (16.7%), 0-3 (14.7%), and 0-1 (12.7%); the probability of each side scoring at least once is 30.5%. On the margin, the model sees a 64.2% chance of the away win by two or more goals and 20.7% of an away win by exactly one.

The data strongly favors a comfortable away win: Torpedo Moscow are the clear favorite, with a dominant goal projection and a 64.2% probability of winning by two or more. That projection would be wrong if the hosts beat their expected output on home ground, though their recent home form is poor. The lack of any head-to-head history is the main uncertainty.