SKA-Khabarovsk-2vsArsenal-2 Tula

Two sides with no league table data and no previous meetings go head-to-head in Khabarovsk. Both have been in modest form, and the model's clearest signal is a draw, given a 49.1% probability. Expected goals are minimal — 0.15 for the hosts and 0.66 for the visitors.

SKA-Khabarovsk-2 have two wins in their last five matches, including a victory in their most recent outing on 22 August. Their only home game on record ended in defeat, with a 0-2 scoreline, leaving them with a 0% home win rate and an average of two goals conceded at home.

Arsenal-2 Tula are winless in five, with three draws and two losses. In two away matches they have drawn once and lost once, averaging 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per game.

No prior meetings between these clubs are on record, so the head-to-head sample is too small to provide any meaningful signal.

The hosts have lost their only home match, failing to score, while the visitors have not won in two away games. Neither side's home or away splits suggest a decisive edge.

Rest periods are similar — seven days for the hosts and six for the visitors — so fatigue is not a distinguishing factor. The more telling input is the model's expected-goal projection of 0.66 for the visitors against 0.15 for the hosts.

The model gives the draw a 49.1% probability, ahead of an away win at 43.4% and a home win at 7.6%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 44.5%, and total goals are projected at roughly 0.81, with just a 19.4% chance of two or more goals. Winning margins are clustered around a draw (49.1%) and an away win by one (30.8%), with an away win by two or more at 12.6%. Model confidence is medium.

The data supports a low-scoring draw as the central expectation, with the away side holding only a modest edge in expected goals. The lack of league table data and a sample of one home match for the hosts means this projection rests on thin statistical ground, but the model's most likely outcome is a goalless result.