Shanghai Port1-1Dalian Yingbo

Shanghai Port host Dalian Yingbo at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in a Chinese Super League Round 18 fixture. The most prominent number in this preview is the model's 63% win probability for the home side, which also projects a 1-0 scoreline. Dalian Yingbo, meanwhile, have no away wins in their last four matches on the road.

There is no head-to-head history between these two sides, so the model's output and recent form carry the analysis. The projected score of 1-0 reflects a low-scoring expectation, with the model placing the most likely exact scoreline at 1-0 with an 18.7% probability.

Shanghai Port's last five matches, most recent first, read WWLWD, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their most recent match was on August 14, giving them five days of rest before this fixture.

Their home record over the last three matches is 1W 1D 1L, scoring an average of one goal and conceding 0.67 per game. That home scoring average is below their overall recent average, and their home win rate over that three-match sample is 33.3 percent. League table position is not available in the data, so this assessment relies on recent results.

Dalian Yingbo's last five matches, most recent first, are LWDLD, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Their last match was on August 15, four days before this fixture, which the data flags as a short turnaround.

Away from home, their last four matches produced 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with an average of 1.25 goals scored and 2 conceded. They have not won in that away sample, and their away concession rate is higher than their overall recent average.

There are no prior meetings on record between Shanghai Port and Dalian Yingbo. The head-to-head sample is therefore too small to lean on for any historical pattern.

Given the absence of direct meetings, the preview must rely on current form, venue splits, and the model projection. This is a notable gap in the data, and it means the model's output carries more weight than usual.

Shanghai Port's last three home matches at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena show a record of 1W 1D 1L, with an average of one goal scored and 0.67 conceded. That home scoring average is lower than their overall recent average of 1.8 goals per game.

Dalian Yingbo's last four away matches show a record of 0W 2D 2L, with an average of 1.25 goals scored and 2 conceded. Their away concession rate is higher than their overall recent average of 1.6 per game. The venue is a home fixture for Shanghai Port, though the data does not provide a separate home-advantage figure beyond these results.

Rest days are a notable factor in this fixture. Shanghai Port have five days since their last match, while Dalian Yingbo have only four days and are flagged for a short turnaround. That congestion may affect the away side's performance, particularly given their winless away record.

Dalian Yingbo's away sample shows no wins in four, and their away average of two goals conceded is the highest split in the data. Shanghai Port's recent form includes three wins in their last five, though their home scoring has been modest. The model's medium confidence level indicates that while the home side is favored, the projection is not highly certain.

The Poisson model gives Shanghai Port a 63% win probability, a 24.5% draw probability, and a 12.5% probability for a Dalian Yingbo win. The projected score is 1-0, based on expected values of 1.59 goals for Shanghai and 0.55 for Dalian.

The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 at 18.7%, 2-0 at 14.9%, and 0-0 at 11.7%. The model projects about 2.15 total goals, with a 63.2% chance of at least two goals and a 36.3% chance of at least three. The probability that each side scores at least once is 33.8%.

From the home perspective, the model gives Shanghai a 34.8% chance of winning by two or more goals and a 28.1% chance of winning by exactly one goal. A draw is at 24.5%, while an away win by one is at 9.7% and an away win by two or more is at 2.8%. The confidence level is medium, meaning the margin estimates carry some uncertainty.

The data collectively points to a Shanghai Port win, with the model marking that as the most likely outcome at 63%. Dalian Yingbo's winless away record and short turnaround reinforce the home side's favorability, while Shanghai's recent form also supports the projection.

The projected 1-0 scoreline and the 11.7% probability of a 0-0 draw suggest the match could be decided by a single goal. The medium confidence level is a reminder that the model's edge is not overwhelming, and a draw remains a plausible alternative at 24.5%.

What would make this projection wrong would be a significant improvement in Dalian Yingbo's away output or a drop in Shanghai Port's scoring below their already modest home average. The model's own numbers keep the most likely outcome as a home win, but by a narrow margin.