Seattle StormvsToronto Tempo

Seattle Storm host Toronto Tempo in a WNBA regular-season contest. The model favors the home side with a 69.2% win probability, despite Toronto winning both prior meetings. Seattle's home record is 7-13 in their last 20, while Toronto are 4-14 away in their last 18.

Seattle have gone 7-13 across their last 20 home games, averaging 85.7 points scored and 85.5 conceded. Their most recent five games produced a 2-3 run, with scoring and conceding averages both at 71.6. They have had 11 days off since their last match.

Toronto are 4-14 across their last 18 away games, scoring 88.67 per game but conceding 96. Their last five outings brought one win and four losses, with averages of 88.4 scored and 94.8 conceded. They last played five days ago.

The teams have met twice, with Toronto winning both: 93-72 on May 30 and 86-73 on May 13. Seattle's combined total was 145 points to Toronto's 179. Two meetings is too small a sample to lean on, but the record favors the visitors.

Seattle's home splits show nearly level scoring and conceding, at 85.7 and 85.5. Toronto's away splits reveal a porous defense, allowing 96 while scoring 88.67. Both prior head-to-head meetings were played in Toronto, so there is no home-court data for this exact matchup.

Seattle have had 11 days of rest versus Toronto's five. Toronto's away defense, conceding 96 per game, is the weakest split in this matchup. Seattle's recent scoring average of 71.6 is well below their home norm, adding uncertainty.

The model's most likely outcome is a Seattle win, with a 69.2% probability and a projected score of 86-80. Its confidence is medium, and it expects a margin of 5.7 points. The margin distribution gives Seattle a 35.6% chance of winning by 1-10 and a 33.6% chance of winning by 11+, while Toronto's chances are 21.7% for a 1-10 win and 9.1% for an 11+ win.

The data points to a Seattle home win, supported by the model's probability and Toronto's away defensive struggles. Toronto's 2-0 head-to-head record and Seattle's recent low-scoring form are the main caveats. If Seattle's offense fails to recover, the projected 86 points could be too high.