Scheiblingkirchen-WarthvsWiener SC

Round 5 of the Austrian Regionalliga Ost pits a Scheiblingkirchen-Warth side with mixed recent form against a Wiener SC team that has won four of its last five. The model gives the visitors a 57.5% win probability, with the draw at 37% and the home side at just 5.6%. Interestingly, the most likely exact scoreline is 0-0, yet the aggregate outcome points to an away victory.

No league table record is available for Scheiblingkirchen-Warth. At home over their last two fixtures they have one win and one draw, scoring 2 and conceding 1.5 per game. Their recent five matches show an average of 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded, suggesting defensive vulnerability.

Wiener SC's only away result on record is a 1-0 win, but their broader recent form is strong: four wins and one defeat in five, with 2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The away sample is thin, so confidence in that split is limited.

The sides have never met before, leaving the model with no head-to-head history to work from. With such a small sample, this fixture is particularly hard to assess from past meetings alone.

At home, Scheiblingkirchen-Warth have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game across two matches, while their overall recent average is 1.8. Wiener SC's single away appearance yielded a clean sheet, though one match offers little basis for comparison.

Both sides have had similar rest periods — six and seven days respectively — so neither enters at a significant scheduling disadvantage. The model flags medium confidence, partly because the league table data is absent. With such low expected goal totals, the match is projected to be tight and low-scoring.

The model assigns a 5.6% chance of a home win, 37% to a draw, and 57.5% to Wiener SC, making an away victory the most likely outcome. The most probable exact scoreline is 0-0 (32%), followed by 0-1 (31.7%) and 0-2 (15.6%), reflecting a home expected-goals tally of just 0.15 against 0.99 for the visitors. Total goals are projected at roughly 1.14, with only a 31.5% chance of two or more; the margin distribution shows away by one (34.1%) and away by two or more (23.4%) as the leading non-draw scenarios.

The data points clearly toward a Wiener SC win, but the low expected goals mean a draw is a substantial alternative at 37%. The home side's attacking output at home is respectable, yet their defensive record undermines their chances. The projection would be upended if Scheiblingkirchen-Warth keep a clean sheet and convert a rare chance — but with a 5.6% win probability, the model affords them little room.