SassuolovsCelta Vigo

This is a preseason friendly between Sassuolo and Celta Vigo at Mapei Stadium. No league form is available for either side; the only data at hand covers recent home and away records plus a short run of pre-season results. The model sees a near-even contest, with Sassuolo's win probability at 37.3% and Celta Vigo's at 34.9%, while the projected scoreline is 1-1.

That split—a narrow home nod in outcome probability but a draw in expected score—reflects how tightly matched these sides appear. The single most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, but the aggregated outcome probabilities make a home win the model's most likely result.

Sassuolo's last 20 home matches show 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses, a 50% win rate, with an average of 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game. Their most recent five outings produced three wins and two losses (WLLLW), with a slightly higher scoring average of 1.8 goals per game.

They last played on 22 July, giving them a 14-day gap before this fixture. The form is uneven, but the home record leans positive.

Celta Vigo have played 20 away matches, recording 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses—a 45% win rate—while averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.05 conceded. Their last five matches produced two wins, two draws and one loss (DWDLW), with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.

They were in action more recently than their hosts, having played on 29 July. The away numbers suggest a side that is hard to beat on the road.

There are no prior meetings between Sassuolo and Celta Vigo on record. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the fixture is effectively a blank slate.

This is too small a sample to lean on, so any projection must rest on current form and the model's input rather than past encounters.

The available splits show that Sassuolo's home play has been high-scoring on both ends, averaging 1.45 goals for and 1.35 against per game. Celta Vigo's away record is more defensively sound, conceding 1.05 per game while scoring 1.3. That suggests the home side may create chances but also leave space at the back.

Since no overall league table data is available for either team, these splits cannot be compared to their broader season numbers. This is a friendly at Sassuolo's ground, so the venue might carry less weight than in a competitive fixture.

Rest days differ noticeably: Sassuolo have had 14 days since their last match, while Celta Vigo have had seven. Both sides are in pre-season, so match sharpness is an open question.

The lack of any head-to-head meetings removes one common reference point. Additionally, no league table data is provided, so the recent home/away records are the only form indicators on offer. The model's medium confidence and the narrow probability gap suggest the match could swing on small margins.

The Poisson model gives Sassuolo a 37.3% win probability, a 27.8% chance of a draw, and Celta Vigo a 34.9% win probability. Although the single most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%, the aggregated outcome categories make a home win the most likely result. The projected score of 1-1 comes from expected goals of 1.21 for Sassuolo and 1.16 for Celta Vigo, which are very close.

The model's confidence is medium, meaning the edge for Sassuolo is real but not commanding.

The data points to a tightly contested friendly with a slight lean toward the home side. Sassuolo's 50% home win rate and the model's outcome probabilities give them a narrow advantage, but Celta Vigo's away record—particularly their low concession rate—keeps them well within reach.

The absence of head-to-head history and the uncertainty of pre-season friendlies make any single prediction fragile. If Celta Vigo reproduce their typical away solidity, a draw or away win is easily plausible; the model's medium confidence reflects that.