São Paulo3-1Bolívar

This is the return leg of a Copa Sudamericana round-of-16 tie, with São Paulo hosting Bolívar at Estádio do Morumbi. The first leg, played a week ago, ended 1-1, leaving the tie level. The model, however, sees a clear favorite: Bolívar is given a 57.6% win probability, making a victory for the Bolivian side the most likely outcome despite playing away.

The two teams arrive on short rest, with São Paulo having played three days ago and Bolívar four days ago. Recent form trends in opposite directions, with Bolívar winning three of their last five while São Paulo have gone winless in that stretch. The aggregate of the model's projections suggests a low-scoring but away-leaning contest.

São Paulo's last five matches read DDLDL, with an average of one goal scored and 1.4 conceded per game. The series includes no wins, and the most recent result was a loss.

At home, the sample is even smaller: two matches, producing one draw and one loss, with an average of one goal scored and 1.5 conceded. That amounts to a 0% win rate at home in the last two.

Bolívar have won three of their last five, with the sequence WDWWL, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their most recent match was also a loss, but the overall run is strong.

Away from home, Bolívar have won two of their last three, losing the other, with an average of 1.67 scored and one conceded per game. That gives a 66.7% away win rate, a far stronger set of numbers than São Paulo's home form.

Only one meeting between these sides is on record: a 1-1 draw on 2026-08-12, with Bolívar as the home side. That single result means the aggregate score is level going into this second leg.

The sample is too small to lean on. The one match produced two goals, which aligns with the model's projection of about 2.44 total goals for the second leg. With just one data point, the head-to-head offers little predictive weight.

The venue splits are notable. São Paulo's home record in their last two matches includes no wins, while Bolívar's away record in their last three includes two wins. That inverts the usual expectation of home advantage.

The model reflects that inversion: it projects a 0-1 scoreline, with Bolívar's expected goals at 1.65 against São Paulo's 0.8. Winning-margin probabilities show a 31.6% chance of an away win by two or more goals, the single largest margin bucket.

Both teams are on congested schedules, with São Paulo having three days of rest since their last match and Bolívar four. Neither side has a league table on record for this season, so the only form available is the recent results and splits provided.

The most striking data point is the contrast between São Paulo's home form (0 wins in their last two) and Bolívar's away form (2 wins in their last three). Additionally, the sides met just a week ago, so the second leg will be contested by two teams that already know exactly what the other offers.

The Poisson model sets the win probabilities at 18% for São Paulo, 24.4% for a draw, and 57.6% for Bolívar, with medium confidence. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1, at 14.3%, followed by 0-2 (11.8%) and 1-1 (11.4%).

The model projects about 2.44 combined goals, with a 70.1% chance of at least two goals and a 44.2% chance of three or more. The probability that both teams score is 44.4%. On the margin, an away win by one goal is a 26% probability, and an away win by two or more is 31.6%, while a home win of any type is just 18%.

In aggregate, the model expects a match in which Bolívar get the goal their expected-goals edge implies, and São Paulo struggle to create equivalent chances. The model's medium confidence suggests the edge is real but not overwhelming.

Everything in the data points the same direction: Bolívar are the stronger side on recent form, on away form, and in the model's projections. São Paulo's winless run and poor home numbers make a home victory the least likely of the three match outcomes.

The most probable outcome is a Bolívar win, and the model's projected scoreline of 0-1 implies they may not even need to push for a second goal. However, the limited head-to-head sample and medium model confidence mean a draw or narrow home win cannot be dismissed. If São Paulo reproduce the form of the first leg — the 1-1 draw — they could still force a draw or better.