Santos del Potosí87-63Dorados de Chihuahua

Santos del Potosí host Dorados de Chihuahua in Round 13 of the Mexican LNBP at Auditorio Miguel Barragán. The margin model gives Dorados a 66.1% win probability, while Santos arrive on a five-game losing streak with an average of 73.8 points scored and 92 conceded in that run.

Santos have lost their last five matches overall, averaging 73.8 points per game while allowing 92. At home their last five outings produce a 2-3 record with 80.4 scored and 87.8 conceded per game, a 40% win rate.

Dorados have split their last five games, going 2-3 with averages of 84.6 scored and 88.4 conceded. On the road they are 2-2 in their last four, scoring 84 and allowing 82.75 per game, a 50% win rate.

The two sides have no prior meetings on record, so historical head-to-head cannot inform this projection. The sample is too small to draw any comparative tendency.

Santos' home numbers show a higher scoring rate than their overall recent form (80.4 vs 73.8) but they still concede 87.8 per game at home. Dorados' away defense has been sturdier than their overall recent mark (82.75 vs 88.4 conceded), though their scoring is also slightly lower away (84 vs 84.6).

Both teams are playing on short rest, with Santos at three days and Dorados at four, so neither holds a clear freshness edge. The absence of any recorded head-to-head meetings adds uncertainty to the matchup.

The model projects a Dorados win, giving them a 66.1% probability and an expected scoreline of 84-88 (expected values 83.6-88.3). It expects roughly 172 total points. The model's largest single margin bucket is a Dorados win by 1-10 points, with 35.6%, followed by a Dorados win by 11+ at 30.5%; Santos winning by double digits is just 10.4%. The model's confidence is medium.

The data points to Dorados leaving with a win, most likely by a single-digit margin, though a double-digit road win is also reasonably plausible. A Santos upset would be a modest surprise on these numbers; the medium confidence and lack of head-to-head precedent leave room for that result.