Sandecja Nowy Sacz1-1Górnik Łęczna

Sandecja Nowy Sacz welcome Górnik Łęczna in Round 5 of the Polish II liga. The match model gives the hosts a 93.8% win probability and projects a 3-0 scoreline. Sandecja have taken three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five league matches, while Górnik have three wins and two defeats.

At home, Sandecja are unbeaten in their last three matches, winning two and drawing one, with an average of two goals scored and none conceded. Their wider recent run shows 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game.

Górnik Łęczna have split their two away matches, winning one and losing one, scoring 1.5 goals per game and conceding two. Over their last five overall, they average two goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match.

There is no head-to-head record between these two clubs. With no prior meetings, this preview is built on current form and model projections rather than historical data.

Sandecja's home numbers are stronger than their overall recent form: two goals scored and none conceded at home versus 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded overall. Górnik's away form is more porous, with 1.5 scored and two conceded per match away compared to two scored and 1.4 conceded across all matches.

Both teams have had between six and seven days of rest since their last competitive outing, so no significant schedule imbalance exists. The absence of any head-to-head data adds a layer of uncertainty, but the model's input is driven by Sandecja's clean home record and Górnik's away defensive numbers.

The Poisson model gives Sandecja a 93.8% win probability, a 5.5% draw chance and just 0.7% for a Górnik win. It projects 3-0 from expected goals of 3.19 to 0.15, with a home win by two or more goals in 79.5% of scenarios. Combined goals are expected to reach about 3.34, and the probability that each side scores at least once is 13.4%. Confidence is medium, so the projected margin should be treated with caution.

The data points strongly toward a Sandecja win, with the model projecting a margin of two or more goals in most scenarios. Górnik's away scoring rate of 1.5 per game is the main counterweight, though it has not produced a winning away record. The medium confidence level means a narrower result cannot be ruled out.