San Martín de Burzaco3-2Argentino de Quilmes

Round 32 of the Primera B Metropolitana pairs San Martín de Burzaco with Argentino de Quilmes at Estadio Francisco Boga. The model's most likely outcome is a draw, at 74.8%, with a projected 0-0 scoreline.

San Martín de Burzaco have lost three of their last five, drawing the other two, while averaging 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Their last two home matches both ended in draws, with an average of 0.5 goals per side.

Argentino de Quilmes have lost only one of their last five, recording three draws and one win, with an average of 0.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. Their last two away fixtures produced one win and one draw, with no goals conceded in either.

There are no prior meetings between the clubs on record. That leaves the head-to-head column blank and makes the model's output the only analytical reference point.

San Martín de Burzaco have drawn both of their last two home matches, averaging 0.5 goals for and against. Argentino de Quilmes have won one and drawn one of their last two away matches, conceding no goals in either.

Both teams are on a three-day turnaround after playing on August 22, a congested schedule that may encourage a measured pace. No other differentiating data is available, with no prior meetings and no league table context to weigh.

The Poisson model gives the home side a 12% chance, the away side 13.2%, and the draw 74.8%, with medium confidence. It projects a 0-0 scoreline and roughly 0.31 combined goals, with only a 4% chance of two or more goals. The probability of each side scoring at least once is 2.1%, and the margin distribution is dominated by the draw, with each side winning by exactly one goal in 11-12% of simulations.

The data consistently points to a stalemate, with an exceptionally high draw probability and both teams' recent form generating little attacking output. A low-scoring draw is the most plausible result; a decisive outcome would require a breakthrough that neither side's numbers suggest is likely.